SENATE
Georgia
Reports from the Peach State indicate that US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) will declare his US Senate candidacy as early as next week. US Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) then announced that he will not run for the Senate.
US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Agriculture Commissioner John King, and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton) are current Republican candidates. The top fundraiser of the group is Rep. Carter, who already has over $4 million in his campaign account, far more than any of his Republican opponents.
The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who is the leading money raiser in the country so far this cycle, and commands a campaign account of over $15 million. The Georgia race is the Republicans’ top conversion opportunity campaign.
Michigan
US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) who had been testing the waters for an open Senate bid, announced this week that he will not enter the statewide race and is likely to seek re-election in his 4th Congressional District.
Republican leaders had been striving to clear the Senate nomination field for former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percentage point) of scoring an upset win last November, and now it appears their goal has been achieved.
The Huizenga decision allows Mr. Rogers to avoid issuing major expenditures during the primary cycle and to pool the resources he does have for just one campaign, while his Democratic opponents must fight for the party nomination until August 4, 2026.
North Carolina
Key questions were answered in the North Carolina Senate race during the week. According to a report from Axios News, former Gov. Roy Cooper is communicating to North Carolina Democratic Party leaders that he will enter the state’s open Senate race and formally declare his intention as early as next week.
Mr. Cooper, who was elected four times as North Carolina’s Attorney General and then twice as Governor, was clearly the party’s first choice to run for the Senate and even more so after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term. Former US Rep. Wiley Nickel, who is a declared Democratic Senate candidate, previously said he would step aside if former Gov. Cooper decided to run.
Almost immediately after the Cooper story broke, presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump, after saying earlier in the week that she would decide about the Senate race before Thanksgiving, announced that she will not run, prompting Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley to declare his candidacy. The head-turning action ended with President Trump immediately announcing his support for Mr. Whatley. The Tar Heel State Senate race will be one of the most important campaigns of the 2026 election cycle.
HOUSE
AL-1
Former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in the 2024 Republican primary when he was paired with Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) after a court-ordered redistricting, says he is “highly likely” to run for an open 1st Congressional District should Rep. Moore enter the Senate race in August as expected. Mr. Carl would begin an open congressional campaign as the favorite to capture the Republican nomination and the seat in November of 2026.
CA-9
Former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) announced that he will return to again challenge US Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy). In 2024, Mr. Lincoln held Rep. Harder to a 52-48% win in one of thirteen congressional districts that President Trump carried but elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives. This will again be a competitive race in 2026.
CO-8
In a district designed to revert between the parties, a ninth Democrat, venture capitalist and Marine Corps veteran Evan Munsing announced his campaign this week. The Democratic field vying to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Fort Lupton) includes former Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo, State Treasurer David Young, and two state Representatives among the nine contenders to date.
One of the legislators, state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City), has already raised $1.6 million and has over $800,000 cash-on-hand. Rep. Evans has also raised $1.6 million for his re-election campaign and has a more substantial $1.5 million remaining in his campaign coffers. In contrast, Ms. Caraveo, who lost to Mr. Evans in November, raised only $214,000 since her 2026 announcement of candidacy.
CT-1
Veteran US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) has drawn his second Democratic primary opponent. Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry announced his candidacy during the week, joining Hartford School Board Member Ruth Fortune in the party primary. Rep. Larson has yet to announce whether he will stand for a 15th term next year. The 1st District is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.8D – 38.8R; Harris ’24: 60.6 – 37.7%) so the party nominee will be the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November.
GA-13
Financial Services lobbyist Pierre Whatley became the eighth Democrat to announce a challenge to 12-term incumbent Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Though Rep. Scott says he will run for a 13th term, his health concerns have most political prognosticators believing that he will announce his retirement closer to the state candidate filing deadline next March.
Among the top Democratic challengers are veteran state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn), and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair. The Atlanta metro 13th District seat is safely Democratic.
ME-2
Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), in a quick analysis from The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators, is the leading national GOP challenger fundraiser for the 2nd Quarter as he obtained over $556,000 in contributions. Mr. LePage is a consensus Republican candidate to challenge US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston).
Two June polls were released. The Mellman Group (6/4-10; 400 ME-2 likely voters) finds Rep. Golden leading Mr. LePage only 44-43%. In a more recent survey, the University of New Hampshire fielded a poll in Maine’s northern congressional district (6/19-23; 394 ME-2 registered voters) and sees the former Governor topping Rep. Golden, 50-47%. President Trump carried this district in all three of his elections. Rep. Golden was first elected in 2018 through the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system.
MA-6
Democratic US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from software engineer Bethany Andres-Beck, who plans to use the transgender issue as a major point against the Congressman. Mr. Moulton, an Iraq War veteran who has angered some Democrats with his criticism of some of the party’s positions such as men competing in women’s sports, will be favored for renomination and re-election.
MN-2
Four-term state Sen. Eric Pratt (R-Jordan), a one-time Trump critic but now supporter, announced that he will compete in the open 2nd Congressional District next year. Incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is running for the Senate.
NY-17
Two-term US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), who had been considering entering the 2026 Governor’s race, this week announced he would forego a statewide run and will seek re-election to his politically marginal Upstate 17th Congressional District. Democrats have been busy in this seat preparing either for an open seat or another tight campaign against Rep. Lawler. A total of seven Democrats have already announced their candidacy. They will battle for the party nomination all the way through to the June 23rd primary election date.
PA-10
Former television news anchor and 2024 Democratic congressional nominee Janelle Stelson announced that she will return to again challenge seven-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). The 2024 election ended in a 51-49% Perry victory. This will again be a top Democratic challenger race in 2026.
TX-15
Emergency physician Ada Cuellar announced that she will compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge two-term US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) next year. The 15th CD stretches from just northeast of San Antonio all the way to the Mexican border and holds a Voting Age Population figure of 79% Hispanic, yet Rep. De La Cruz garnered 57% in her 2024 re-election effort. With a new redistricting map perhaps in place for the 2026 election, this district will likely become more Republican.
VA-5
Freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) has drawn both a re-match primary challenger and general election opponent for the 2026 election. In 2024, Mr. McGuire unseated then-US Rep. Bob Good in the Republican primary, and the former Congressman is returning to attempt a political comeback. In the general election, the eventual Republican nominee will likely face Albermarle County Supervisor Mike Pruitt, who is the lone announced Democratic candidate to date. Republicans will be favored to hold what is a reliably safe GOP seat.
GOVERNOR
Minnesota
Former state Senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen announced he will return to challenge Governor and 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz who is expected to seek a third term. Three years ago, the Governor defeated Mr. Jensen, 52-45%. Gov. Walz would be favored in such a repeat campaign, but GOP chances to make the race closer have improved.
Nevada
Washoe County (Reno) Commission chair Alexis Hill became the second Democrat to announce her gubernatorial candidacy. Ms. Hill joins Attorney General Aaron Ford in the party primary. The eventual party nominee, and Mr. Ford is favored, will challenge Gov. Joe Lombardo (R).
Wisconsin
A surprise came from the Badger State late this week as two-term Gov. Tony Evers (D) announced he will not seek a third term next year. Most believed he would run, but early fundraising falling below his previous benchmarks spurred speculation that maybe the Governor would retire. Without Mr. Evers on the ballot, both parties will be in upheaval and potential candidates in both parties will quickly begin to make some preliminary moves.
STATE AND LOCAL
Detroit
As the August 5 city primary election nears, Target Insyght polled Detroit mayoral voters (7/8-10; 400 Detroit registered voters) and again found City Council President Mary Sheffield leading her primary opponents. According to the ballot test result, Ms. Sheffield holds a 34-17-16-6-6% advantage over former Council President Saunteel Jenkins, Pastor Solomon Kinloch, City Councilman Fred Durhal, III, and retired Police Chief James Craig. Without any candidate receiving majority support in the first election, the top two finishers will advance to a general election in November.
New York City
HarrisX poll (7/7-8; 585 NYC registered voters; online) finds Democratic Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani leading former Governor Andrew Cuomo (I), Republican Curtis Sliwa, and Mayor Eric Adams (I), 26-23-22-13%, respectively. Interestingly, if Mayor Adams were to drop out, Mr. Cuomo would assume first position with 31% as Mamdani and Sliwa would follow with 29 and 28 percentage preference figures.
With so much national attention centered on this race, it appears a very close finish will be in store. Perhaps the biggest surprise in this poll is Republican frequent candidate Sliwa faring well considering Republican registration in the City is just 11 percent.
