SENATE
Alabama
Paul Finebaum, a college sports analyst and national commentator, is indicating interest in launching a US Senate bid for incumbent Tommy Tuberville’s (R-AL) open seat. Upon entering the race Mr. Finebaum would face Attorney General Steve Marshall and US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in the Republican primary.
The seat will remain in Republican hands, meaning the GOP nomination process will decide Sen. Tuberville’s replacement. For his part, the Senator is eschewing re-election to run in the open Governor’s race where he is viewed as the favorite to succeed term-limited incumbent Kay Ivey (R).
Illinois
A Public Policy Polling survey (9/25-26; 576 IL likely Democratic primary voters; text and live interview) from Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton’s (D) US Senate campaign finds that US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) continues to lead the race. In this poll, Mr. Krishnamoorthi holds a 33-18-8% advantage over Ms. Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively.
The Stratton campaign released what should be viewed as an unfavorable result for its candidate but stresses a path to victory for the Lt. Governor still exists because of the large undecided contingent. Rep. Krishnamoorthi, who also has a large resource advantage, remains the favorite for the party nomination and to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the general election.
New Hampshire
The University of New Hampshire just released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open US Senate contest between US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former US Senator John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term NH Governor Chris Sununu.
The UNH poll (9/17-23; 1,361 NH adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely NH Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Pappas leading a ballot test question with ex-Sen. Sununu 49-43%, but the sampling universe skews more Democratic than the actual voting data suggests. Therefore, it is likely that Sununu is a bit closer to Pappas than this spread foretells. Mr. Sununu has not officially announced his 2026 candidacy, but all indications point to him entering the race. He is considered a heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.
Pennsylvania
The new Quinnipiac Pennsylvania statewide survey found an unusual response regarding Sen. John Fetterman’s (D) job approval rating. The poll (9/25-29; 1,579 PA registered voters; live interview) reveals a 46:38% positive ratio, but who favors and disfavors him cuts against the political grain. Among his fellow Democrats, Sen. Fetterman’s standing is upside-down with a poor 33:54% negative ratio. Yet, among Republicans, the Senator posts strongly positive numbers, 62:21%. Among Independents, Sen. Fetterman sees an equal share (43%) approving and disapproving of his performance in office.
HOUSE
FL-19
In perhaps the strangest 2026 congressional race to date, former one-term North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorn (R) announced that he would enter the open seat race to replace Florida US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) who is running for Governor.
The race is strange because the candidate field features now three contenders who were elected officials in other states. In addition to North Carolina’s Cawthorn, former New York Congressman Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Senator Jim Oberweis are among the candidates competing for the southwest Florida seat. The eventual Republican nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.
HI-1
State Rep. Della Au Belatti (D-Makiki) joined state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Honolulu) as announced Democratic primary challenger candidates to Hawaii US Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe). Certainly, this race appears competitive with a pair of elected officials challenging the Congressman, but having two opponents actually favors the incumbent because the anti-Case vote would be split between the two contenders. In a plurality system without a runoff election, a multi-candidate typically helps the incumbent.
Missouri
Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) signed the state legislature’s new congressional redistricting bill into law. Legal challenges will follow, but assuming the new map stands, it is likely to produce a net one-seat Republican gain. US Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D) Kansas City district is split three ways, thus making his re-election much more difficult and could mean retirement for the 80-year-old 11-term Congressman and former Kansas City Mayor.
MO-4
Since the new Missouri map brings Rep. Mark Alford’s (R-Lake Winnebago) mostly rural district into part of Kansas City, the municipality’s current Mayor, Quinton Lucas (D), is indicating that he would consider running for Congress.
While the new 4th CD is still heavily Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 59.9R – 38.7D), it is not as strong as the current district. Rep. Alford would be favored for re-election under this scenario, but Mayor Lucas would give the Democrats a viable standard bearer if he were to become a congressional contender.
NH-1 & 2
The aforementioned University of New Hampshire poll (see New Hampshire Senate above) also tested the open 1st CD and 2nd District that freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) will defend. According to the ballot tests, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring US Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), opens with a Democratic primary lead of 29-8% over her closest 1st District competitor, former Biden Administration official Maura Sullivan.
In District 2, the state’s western CD which is likely to feature a general election rematch between Rep. Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the incumbent would lead 51-39%. In the 2024 general election, Ms. Goodlander defeated Ms. Williams, 51-45%.
GOVERNOR
Arizona
Eight-term Arizona Republican Congressman David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale) announced this week that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor. While Rep. Schweikert would have faced another difficult re-election campaign for the House, his path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination is also far from secure. Already running for months are fellow US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 statewide candidate Karrin Taylor Robson.
A recent Pulse Decision Science survey (9/8-10; 502 AZ likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Biggs opening a large GOP primary lead. According to the Pulse ballot test, the Congressman would lead Ms. Robson 55-31%. The poll was taken just after Rep. Schweikert initially said he was considering entering the race. Adding him to the gubernatorial ballot test question found Schweikert trailing badly with only 11% support.
The eventual Republican nominee after the August 4, 2026, primary election will face incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Polling is already forecasting a close race irrespective of who becomes the ultimate GOP challenger.
California
State Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) this week ended her gubernatorial bid. She raised over $4 million to date but fails to see a path to overcome the crowded bipartisan field to secure one of two positions for the general election.
A total of 71 other individuals have announced their candidacies including former US Rep. Katie Porter (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), former US Health & Human Services Secretary and past CA Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D), ex-state Controller Betty Yee (D), previous Fox News host Steve Hilton (R), and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R).
It remains to be seen how many of these announced candidates file for the office at the March 11, 2026, open seat candidate filing deadline in anticipation of the June 2, 2026, jungle primary election.
Connecticut
Westport Mayor Jen Tooker (R) ended her gubernatorial bid, but is reportedly open to considering entering another statewide race. The principal Republican gubernatorial candidates are state Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) and former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart.
Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is expected to run for a third term but has so far not yet made public his political plans. State Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden) is an announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate. It is unclear if Mr. Elliott will remain in the race should Gov. Lamont seek a third term.
Georgia
State Rep. Ruwa Romman (D-Peachtree Corners) joined the Democratic primary for Governor. Born in Jordan, Rep. Romman is the first Muslim female elected to the Georgia legislature.
Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms released an internal Public Policy Polling survey (9/15-16; 620 GA likely Democratic primary voters; text and live interview) that finds her leading the Democratic primary race with a 38-12-9% margin over former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond and ex-Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan. All other candidates drew less than 5% support.
New Jersey
The new Save New Jersey poll (Valcour; 9/23-24; 1,274 NJ likely general election voters; online) posts US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) to a 47-45% slight lead over GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, but the Republican is favored to perform better with all issues but education.
Also released is a Fox News Poll (9/25-28; 822 NJ likely voters) that found the Democrat leading 50-42%. Quantus Insights followed with their survey (9/29-30; 900 NJ likely voters) that produced an almost identical result to the Valcour poll. The QI result found Ms. Sherrill’s lead at 48-46%.
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac University released a survey of the Pennsylvania Governor’s race that puts incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) in strong position. The poll (9/25-29; 1,579 PA registered voters; live interview), finds the Governor enjoying a 60% job approval rating and leading party endorsed Republican candidate Stacey Garrity, Pennsylvania’s State Treasurer, by a 55-39% count. Should state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano (R-Gettysburg) again become the GOP nominee, Gov. Shapiro would lead him by an almost identical 56-39%.
Wisconsin
Missy Hughes, the Director of Gov. Tony Evers’ (D) Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation, announced her gubernatorial campaign this week. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley are the other Democratic contenders.
On the Republican side, businessman Bill Berrien dropped his bid because he was found linking to X-rated websites, thus becoming the subject of a barrage of hypocrisy charges. US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) is favored for the GOP nomination. Expect a toss-up general election campaign.
