NC-1 Rematch; TX-18 Special Look-In

‘Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride’

NC-1

As we approach today’s North Carolina candidate filing deadline for the March 3 primary, a surprising turn of events has occurred in the state’s eastern 1st Congressional District.

The 1st District is the focal point of the new North Carolina redistricting map. Republican legislators redrew the congressional plan several weeks ago with the goal of flipping the district from Democratic US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a Republican. Now, we see a major change on the candidate slate.

Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R), who earlier loaned his congressional campaign $2 million, decided earlier this week to end his candidacy. Yesterday, 2024 congressional nominee Laurie Buckhout, who had endorsed Roberson, decided she would make a comeback in his absence and declared her candidacy. 

Ms. Buckhout had accepted a Department of Defense position from the Trump Administration but will now leave Washington, DC and re-enter the 1st District race. In 2024, Ms. Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a razor-thin 49.5 – 48.7% re-election margin in District 1’s more Democratic version. In the same election, however, President Trump carried the district with a 51.2 – 48.1% margin over Kamala Harris.

At this point, with candidate filing closing today, the announced Republican candidates in addition to Ms. Buckhout are Carteret Count Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Powells Point), Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell. 

Rep. Davis, saddled with what is now an unfavorable district, has filed for re-election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the new NC-1 is 52.4R – 45.9D.  The 2024 election’s partisan lean was 50.9D – 47.7R. 

The North Carolina primary is scheduled for March 3. In order to avoid a runoff, the first place finisher must exceed the 30% vote threshold.  NC-1 is now a prime conversion opportunity for the GOP.

TX-18

The special election to replace the late Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has had the longest campaign cycle of the five 2025 US House vacancies. Mr. Turner passed away on March 5. 

Gov. Greg Abbott decided to schedule the special election concurrently with the state’s municipal elections on November 4th. Under Texas law, a runoff election, necessary if no candidate receives 50% in the first vote, is calendared once it becomes official that no contender reached the majority mark.

In this case, Gov. Abbott slotted the runoff for January 31. Qualifying for that election are Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards.

Redistricting has played havoc with this Houston anchored CD, which is fully contained within Harris County.  Immediately after the special election concludes, both Mr. Menefee and Ms. Edwards, regardless of the outcome, will advance into the regular term primary election for new District 18 that will be settled on March 3. There, however, they will face 9th District veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston) who is running for a 12th term in new District 18.

The new map puts both Menefee and Edwards at a major disadvantage against Rep. Green because 64.5% of the new district constituency comes from the Congressman’s current 9th CD according to The Down Ballot political blog redistribution analysis. Only 25.8% carries over from the current 18th where the special election is being conducted.

Turning to the special, a new Lake Partners Research survey (12/8-14; 437 TX-18 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the January 31 runoff finds Mr. Menefee posting a 43-30% edge. 

Looking at the district stats and comparing them with the new map, it appears that the special election winner will likely have only a short tenure in the House as Congressman Green will be favored to prevail for the regular term party nomination on March 3.