TX-Sen: Plethora Polling

The Lone Star State promises one of the most exciting primary elections of 2026

A series of political surveys conducted in late January and early February are now in the public domain, and we again see data suggesting that four-term Sen. John Cornyn is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election once votes are cast and counted in the March 3 Texas Republican primary.

Four new polls have been released, and while each produces different ballot test numbers the conclusion is similar: that is, we will see two of the three major contenders, Sen. Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), advancing into a secondary nomination election on May 26.

The University of Houston conducted its poll during the January 20-31 period (550 TX likely Republican primary voters; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online); Ragnar Research Partners polled for the pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority Super PAC during January 29 thru February 1 (sample size not released); J.L. Partners queried their sample during January 31 – February 1 (600 TX likely Republican primary voters); and Pulse Decision Science went into the field during the February 1-3 period (801 TX likely Republican primary voters; live interview).

The results below detail the closeness of this race:

University of Houston (1/20-31)
 
Paxton – 38
Cornyn – 31
Hunt – 17
 
Ragnar Research for Texans for a Conservative Majority (1/29-2/1)
 
Cornyn – 31
Paxton– 29
Hunt – 24
 
J.L. Partners (1/31-2/1)
 
Paxton – 27
Cornyn – 26
Hunt – 26
 
Pulse Decision Science (2/1-3)
 
Paxton – 34
Cornyn – 26
Hunt – 18
 
The four polls have several factors in common. First, they were all conducted within the same 15-day time frame. Second, all show Sen. Cornyn performing poorly for a four-term incumbent within his own party. Third, that a runoff is a foregone conclusion. Fourth, that all three major candidates have a chance of qualifying for the secondary election.

The addition of Rep. Hunt to the primary campaign is largely the reason that the race will advance to a runoff stage. Mr. Hunt has gone from being relegated to a pure spoiler role to a status where at least two current pollsters suggest he has an outside path on March 3 to eliminate one of his two opponents from further consideration.

This being the case, expect both Cornyn and Paxton along with their outside supporters to turn their negative attacks onto Hunt, since driving him deeper into third place will guarantee that both statewide officials advance. 

Already, this has begun. The targeted electorate is seeing a great deal of negative attacks being lobbed in Rep. Hunt’s direction. The Texans for Conservative Majority polling memo suggests that $3.4 million in ads have already aired, or time is reserved for negative Hunt commercials.

The campaign balance sheet favors Sen. Cornyn, however, as the year-end Federal Election Commission filings reveal. The veteran incumbent reported $5.9 million in his campaign account at the end of 2025, while AG Paxton posted $3.7 million. Rep. Hunt showed a lesser $1.8 million cash-on-hand. 

Only one of the four pollsters recently releasing Texas Senate political data tested the Democratic primary. The University of Houston found US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) leading state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), 47-39 percent.

It is Mr. Talarico, however, who has the funding advantage. He reported $7.1 million in his account, a larger sum than any candidate from either party. Rep. Crockett posted receipts of $6.5 million raised with $5.6 million in the bank. Because there are only two major candidates on the Democratic side, it is probable that this election will be decided on March 3. 

Real estate broker Ahmad Hassan is also a Democratic US Senate primary candidate. Even though his status is minor, any votes he receives could be enough to force the other two into a runoff should they finish close. The tightness of such an outcome could mean that Mr. Hassan attracting a vote total even as little as 2 to 3% could result in the top Democratic candidates being forced into a secondary election because the leader barely missed topping the 50% mark.

Texas early voting begins next week on February 17 in preparation for the March 3 primary. Tracking the early vote will give us a clue into political enthusiasm between the voters within the two parties. In less than a month we can expect a close finish in both parties from what promises to be one of the most exciting primary elections of the entire 2026 election cycle.