SENATE
Iowa
A new FM3 Research poll (4/21-23; 600 IA likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees a major turnaround in the open Democratic US Senate primary. Previously, state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Johnson County) held large leads over state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). A large influx of outside money, however, along with Democratic Party leadership backing Mr. Turek has turned the race.
Instead of trailing by double-digits as he did in previous polling, Rep. Turek now leads Sen. Wahls, 48-28% according to the latest FM3 ballot test data. The eventual Democratic nominee will face consensus Republican candidate Ashely Hinson, the three-term US Representative from the Cedar Rapids area. The Iowa primary is scheduled for June 2nd.
Louisiana
A new statewide poll shows a very tight Republican US Senate battle and one where incumbent US Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is in danger of not qualifying for a succeeding runoff election. The Emerson College survey (4/24–26; 500 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) shows the two-term incumbent trailing both former state Treasurer John Fleming and U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start), whom President Trump has already endorsed.
The ballot test produced a 28-27-21% split, with Mr. Fleming narrowly leading Rep. Letlow, and Sen. Cassidy following. Clearly, the race is headed toward a runoff, and it is not even certain that Sen. Cassidy will qualify for the second round. The statewide Louisiana federal primary will continue to be held on May 16th with early voting beginning on Saturday. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a June 27th runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in the general election.
Maine
After a series of polls finding Gov. Janet Mills badly trailing oysterman Graham Platner in the Democratic US Senate primary, the two-term state chief executive announced this week that she is suspending her federal campaign, thus conceding the party nomination to her opponent.
Mr. Platner offered conciliatory comments about Ms. Mills’ tenure as Governor in response to her concession announcement. Mr. Platner is now virtually unopposed for the Democratic US Senate nomination and will now face five-term incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the general election in what promises to be a hotly contested general election campaign.
Massachusetts
The University of New Hampshire conducted another of its regional New England surveys (4/16-20; 606 MA likely general election voters; 356 likely likely Democratic primary voters; online) and again finds Sen. Ed Markey leading US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) in their Democratic primary battle, but he again remains below 50% within his own party. The latest ballot test sees the Markey lead at 46-33%, which is consistent with earlier polling. The Massachusetts primary is not until September 1st, so much time remains for the race to further develop.
New Hampshire
The University of New Hampshire tested the Granite State electorate (4/17-21; 1,129 NH likely general election voters; 563 likely Republican primary voters; 481 likely Democratic primary voters; online) and projects that US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is lengthening his lead over former US Senator John E. Sununu (R). According to this ballot test data, the Pappas edge is 49-42%. If former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown were the NH Senate nominee, the Pappas advantage would be a much larger 52-38 percent.
Wyoming
In a surprising move, rancher Sam Mead, nephew of former Governor Matt Mead (R), announced his Republican US Senate primary challenge to at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne). Once incumbent Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) announced her retirement, Rep. Hageman quickly joined the open US Senate primary. Until this week, she was virtually unopposed. Even with Mr. Mead’s entry into the race, Rep. Hageman is a prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination and the general election.
HOUSE
Fl-11
Although he would have continued to represent a safely Republican district under Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed congressional map, eight-term US Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) announced just after celebrating his 77th birthday that he will not seek re-election later this year. Mr. Webster had been viewed as a potential retirement candidate throughout this election cycle. Under the DeSantis map, the proposed FL‑11 would have seen President Trump recording a 57.2% to 41.5% victory margin over Kamala Harris.
Dan Webster was first elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 1980 and later became the chamber’s first Republican Speaker since Reconstruction. He was elected to the state Senate in 1998, where he went on to serve as Majority Leader.
FL-20
Despite resigning from the House after being found in violation of 25 US House ethics planks and under federal indictment for stealing Covid funds and misusing government administrative money, former US Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) announced that she will continue to run to recapture her former seat in the 2026 election.
Under the new Florida redistricting map that is expected to be adopted, FL-20 becomes one of four safely Democratic seats in the state. She trails, however, in all Democratic primary polling. Her major opponents are former rap star Luther Campbell and ex-Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, among others.
Florida Redistricting
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) released his version of a new Florida congressional map that has been introduced into the legislative special session for purposes of replacing the state’s federal plan. The state House immediately rendered its approval, and the state Senate is expected to do likewise. The plan appears to create 24 Republican seats versus only four Democratic districts.
The map was crafted in anticipation of the Louisiana redistricting opinion which was expected to lay the groundwork for future racial gerrymandering challenges. The DeSantis plan will likely be challenged before the Florida Supreme Court. The Sunshine State candidate filing deadline for US House races is June 12th. The Florida primary is scheduled for August 18th.
Louisiana Redistricting
The US Supreme Court, months after initially hearing the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, released its ruling this week.
In authoring the Court’s opinion, Associate Justice Samuel Alito outlined the reasons the justices upheld the three‑judge panel’s ruling in Callais v. Louisiana, which found that the congressional map used before the 2024 election constituted a racial gerrymander.
The ruling is viewed as favorable to Republicans and will almost certainly require Louisiana’s congressional map to be redrawn before the 2026 primary election. It is possible that the legislature could simply revert to the 2021 map that was in place for the 2022 election. This case is now the future benchmark for national racial gerrymandering cases and means such challenges will have to overcome major legal hurdles before becoming legitimate. Therefore, we will likely see major redistricting redraws before the 2028 election cycle as a result of this major opinion.
After the opinion was released, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) suspended the May 16th primary for the US House elections. The Governor also outlined a July 15th targeted date for the new House primary. Other non-US House races scheduled for the May 16th primary will continue as scheduled.
Texas Redistricting
As a prelude to the major Louisiana redistricting ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana case, the US Supreme Court before releasing the major case decision, announced that the Texas congressional redistricting map lower court decision had been formally overturned, thus giving final approval to the new Texas map. Previously, the court had stayed the lower court ruling that claimed the map was a racial gerrymander.
The high court ruling means that the new Texas map will be in use for the 2026 elections. The Texas primary was held March 3rd. For those campaigns in runoff elections, the secondary vote is scheduled for May 26th.
UT-1
The Utah Democratic nominating convention posted former Tik Tok government relations consultant Liban Mohamed to a 51-49% victory over former Congressman Ben McAdams, but both will advance into the Democratic primary. Qualifying for the ballot through petition signatures are state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City) and attorney Michael Farrell. The winner of the new 1st District Democratic primary will be a lock for the general election. Mr. McAdams is favored in a vote of the party’s electorate.
UT-2
Congressman Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) again fared poorly before the Republican state nominating convention delegate base, as he has before. This time he lost to state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse) by a whopping 62-34% margin. Though the Congressman fell below the 40% threshold to automatically qualify for the ballot, he gained his ballot line through petition signatures. He will again be favored in a full primary electorate vote. The new 2nd District will be safely Republican in the general election.
UT-3
US Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) qualified for the ballot in the Utah Republican state convention but finished first only by a 51-49% majority of the delegate vote over former state Representative and ex-gubernatorial candidate Phil Lyman. The June 23rd Republican primary is expected to be hotly contested as the convention vote portends. The Utah redistricting plan has placed Rep. Maloy into a Republican 3rd District, but one largely unfamiliar to her as it is very different than her current 2nd CD.
WI-1
Milwaukee city Alderman Peter Burgelis (D) announced that he will challenge four-term US Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) in a race that will be competitive in November. Though the 1st District carries a tight partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Steil has consistently scored re-election victories in the mid to high 50s. He again will be favored for re-election.
GOVERNOR
New Hampshire
The aforementioned University of New Hampshire survey (see NH Senate above) also tested the Granite State Governor’s race and finds Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) increasing her ballot test performance. The latest data sees the Governor topping former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D), 47-39 percent.
New Mexico
Emerson College tested the open Land of Enchantment Democratic gubernatorial primary (4/18-19; 568 NM likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and again sees former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland topping Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. In this poll, the ballot test reveals a 40-24% Haaland margin. The New Mexico primary is June 2nd. The Democratic nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.
Rhode Island
The University of New Hampshire also tested the Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial primary as part of their regular New England regional poll. In this survey (4/16-20; 559 RI likely general election voters; 328 likely Democratic primary voters; online) the ballot test again finds Gov. Dan McKee is dire straits. According to this small sample poll, former CVS chief executive officer and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Helana Foulkes leads the Governor by a whopping 45-11%.
Mr. McKee continues to post some of the worst ballot test support numbers for any incumbent in the country. The Rhode Island primary is the latest in the country, scheduled for September 9th. Therefore, Gov. McKee has time to recover, but he faces a daunting task toward winning renomination.
