PRIMARY RESULTS
Maine
In the Senate race against no active primary opposition, controversial oyster farmer Graham Platner won the Democratic primary with approximately 70% of the vote. Gov. Janet Mills, who suspended her Senate campaign when it became obvious that she could not overtake Mr. Platner, recorded approximately 20% of the vote.
Sen. Susan Collins was unopposed for renomination on the Republican side. The Collins-Platner general election will be another tough campaign, but a much different one than she faced in 2020. This time, she has an opponent portraying himself as a local working man but as more becomes known about him many of Mr. Platner’s previous statements lead to questions about his veracity. Count on hearing a great deal about the Maine Senate race in the general election.
The Democratic Governor’s campaign will take some time to unfold. While Dr. Nirav Shah held healthy leads in polls throughout the year, the top four candidates finished within six points of one another. The Ranked Choice Voting rounds will determine the outcome at some point within the next two weeks. It is possible that any of the four, Dr. Shah, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows could claim victory in the Ranked Choice rounds.
For the Republicans, RCV rounds will also be required though former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles has a substantial 18 percentage point lead. Therefore, both gubernatorial campaigns are headed to political overtime.
In the 2nd Congressional District, the Democratic field will go to the Ranked Choice Voting rounds as state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), former congressional aide Jordan Wood, and State Auditor Matt Dunlap are all within a three-percentage point split. Fourth place finisher Paige Loud will be eliminated when the other three advance to the RCV rounds. The eventual winner will face former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in the open general election. Incumbent US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) did not seek re-election.
Nevada
The Nevada gubernatorial campaign was a non-event. Gov. Joe Lombardo received just short of 92% in the Republican primary and Attorney General Aaron Ford was a 65% winner on the Democratic side. A close general election race is expected. The most recent general election poll, taken between May 5-11, comes from the Global Strategy Group Democratic firm. The survey, of 700 likely Nevada general election voters, finds Gov. Lombardo leading AG Ford, 45-42%.
In the House races, all three Las Vegas Democratic incumbents were easily renominated, and each Republican favorite also won.
In District 1, state Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) will oppose veteran US Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas). The Congresswoman is favored for re-election, but Sen. Buck is clearly the best candidate the GOP has filed in this district.
In CD 3, musical composer and video gaming company co-owner Marty O’Donnell was an easy Republican primary winner giving him the opportunity of facing four-term US Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in one of the few districts that supported President Trump but sent a Democrat to the House. This is a toss-up general election campaign.
In District 4, where veteran US Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) was unopposed for renomination, businessman and rancher Cody Whipple was an easy Republican primary winner. Of the three Las Vegas congressional districts, this is the most Democratic seat.
In District 2, the state’s lone Republican congressional seat, Trump endorsed retired Air Force officer David Flippo won a close victory over State Conservation Secretary and Gov. Lombardo endorsed candidate James Settelmeyer. Former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson is the Democratic primary winner. The Reno anchored 2nd CD should remain in the Republican column but expect Democrats to make a concerted effort here to make the general election competitive.
North Dakota
There was little in the way of political intrigue in North Dakota on Tuesday night. As expected, freshman at-large US Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-Mandan) was easily renominated with 73% of the vote.
On the Democratic side, 2024 nominee Trygve Hammer, who lost in a landslide in the last election, was unopposed for renomination. It is likely we will see a repeat performance in the 2026 at-large congressional election.
South Carolina
In a Republican gubernatorial primary campaign that was expected to be close among five candidates, the first two finishers ended the race breaking away from the field.
Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who carried both President Trump and Gov. Henry McMaster’s endorsements, placed first with 28.9% of the vote. Four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson was second with 26.1% support. Both now advance to a quick runoff election scheduled for June 23rd. The winner of that race will have the inside track to winning the general election in safely Republican South Carolina.
Approximately 10 percentage points behind the top two finishers was a closely bunched group, in order of finish, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), businessman Rom Reddy, and US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston). These three are now eliminated.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins) was an easy winner, scoring approximately 58% of the vote against two opponents. Because he exceeded the majority threshold figure, Mr. Johnson advances directly into the general election.
In the Senate race, as expected, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), on the ballot seeking a fifth six-year term, captured 57% of the vote against five opponents and will advance directly into the general election where he will again be favored to win re-election. For the Democrats, pediatrician Annie Andrews was an easy 62% winner over two opponents. She, too, advances directly into the general election.
Turning to Rep. Mace’s open 1st District, a runoff election between Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Columbia) will be held on June 23rd. Ms. Honeycutt placed first with 22% against ten opponents, four points ahead of Rep. Smith. The winner will become a heavy favorite in the general election.
SENATE
Alabama
As the Republican runoff candidates stream toward next week’s secondary election, upstart candidate Jared Hudson, who edged Attorney General Steve Marshall out of the second qualifying position in the May 19th primary, continues to perform well. In a newly released Strategy Management survey (6/5-7; 1,300 AL likely Republican runoff voters; online), Mr. Hudson leads Trump endorsed US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), 42-37%. The runoff winner will be rated as the prohibitive favorite to win the open general election. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is running for Governor.
Colorado
In a surprise polling result as the candidates move toward the June 30th Colorado primary, incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) has only a small lead over his Democratic challenger. According to the Colorado Community Research survey (51/17-28; 796 CO likely Democratic primary voters; text to web), Sen. Hickenlooper’s lead over state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist, is only 41-34% including those leaning toward one candidate or the other.
Minnesota
A new GQR Democratic primary poll (5/31-6/3; 500 MN likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, fresh from winning the official Democratic Party endorsement, crushing US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), 55-38%, in an August 11th Democratic primary pairing.
Race Ratings
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia this week changed the ratings on three key Senate races. In Alaska, based upon polling over the past few weeks, the projected contest between Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) and former at-large US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) was changed from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.
The North Carolina contest featuring former Governor Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley was moved from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic. Other political rating entities had previously also characterized this race toward the Democrats.
In Ohio, largely based upon the most recent survey, the race between Sen. Jon Husted (R) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) was moved to Toss-Up from Lean Republican. Before this race is over, expect the rating to return in Sen. Husted’s favor.
HOUSE
FL-20
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s (D-Weston) move to the minority dominated 20th CD has not been overwhelmingly received. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffires (D-NY) even announced that he would not support the Congresswoman’s move. In any event, a new poll finds Ms. Wasserman Schultz’s district-hopping move might work.
A poll for candidate Elijah Manley (The Listener Group; 5/29-6/1; 500 FL-20 likely Democratic primary voters) sees Rep. Wasserman Schultz leading Mr. Manley and former Broward County Commissioner and ex-congressional candidate Dale Holness, 39-21-15%. The Florida primary is scheduled for August 18th.
Florida Redistricting
In what is likely the final major development of the 2026 mid‑decade redistricting cycle, the Florida state Supreme Court has rejected Democrats’ appeal of the newly enacted congressional map. As a result, the new districts will be in place for the 2026 election.
The ruling arrives just in time for candidates to finalize their congressional filings before tomorrow’s deadline. The map is designed to shift four Democratic seats into the Republican column, creating a projected 24R-4D delegation. As with the new plans in Texas and California, it remains to be seen whether the election results will deliver the partisan division that the map architects intended.
MD-6
As the June 23rd Maryland Democratic primary approaches, we continue to see little movement in the contest between freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) and former Congressman and defeated 2024 US Senate candidate David Trone who is attempting a political comeback. According to the third consecutive Hart Research Associates poll (6/2-4; undisclosed respondent number; likely live interview), Rep. McLain Delaney maintains her consistent 52-37% lead over Mr. Trone.
GOVERNOR
Florida
As candidate filing nears its deadline, Democratic candidate David Jolly, a former Tampa Republican Congressman, tabbed former Congresswoman Gwen Graham as his Lt. Governor running mate. Ms. Graham served one term in the House before redistricting changed her Tallahassee anchored 2nd District into a Republican seat. She is the daughter of former Governor and Senator Bob Graham (D). The latter served as Governor from 1979 to 1987, and three US Senate terms from 1987 through the beginning of 2005.
Georgia
As the candidates move toward next week’s runoff election, gubernatorial candidates a new Cygnal research poll (6/5-7; respondent number undisclosed) finds businessman Rick Jackson taking a Republican runoff lead over Lt. Gov. Burt Jones by a 46-35% margin. In the May 19th primary, Lt. Gov. Jones led Mr. Jackson, 38-34%. The winner will face former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) in the general election. She won the Democratic primary outright on May 19th.
