FL-Sen Upset; Rep. Mills Loses; AK & WY

Socialists capture major Florida victory but set to lose it in the overall election

Despite former National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman outraising state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville) by a 16:1 ratio ($15.9 million raised vs. $975,000 through July 29), the financial advantage failed to translate into votes. 

Rep. Nixon, a Democratic Socialist candidate, scored another victory for her faction with a convincing 55-45% win over Mr. Vindman. Ms. Nixon now faces appointed Sen. Ashley Moody who won her Republican nomination with just under 80% of the vote.

Turning to the House, two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), dogged with sexual misconduct accusations, lost his renomination to former news anchorman Ryan Elijah. The challenger’s 47-34% victory margin translated into an 8,000+ vote spread. Rep. Mills becomes the 11th House member to lose renomination this year.

Mr. Elijah now faces former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton who, as predicted, won the Democratic primary. Mr. Elijah will be favored in a new 7th District that carries a 56.5R – 42.5D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).

In the Governor’s race, also as expected, US Rep. Byron Donalds won a convincing Republican primary victory as did former Republican and ex-Independent Congressman David Jolly in the Democratic primary. Rep. Donalds will be favored in the general election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was ineligible to seek a third term.

Turning to other Florida congressional races, Austin Rogers, the former legal counsel to Sen. Rick Scott (R), won the open 2nd District Republican primary against multiple opponents. He will be favored to hold the safely Republican seat in the general election and succeed retiring US Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City). 

In the 9th District, one of four CD’s the Republicans believe they will convert in the general election, Iraq War veteran Dan Green holds a small lead against water district board member and rancher Ben Butler in a contest that is still too close to call. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge veteran Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee).

Rep. Dan Webster (R-Claremont) is retiring, so his 11th District is open. This race is also too close to call. With approximately 1,500 votes outstanding, businessman Joe Strada leads former state Senator Cary Baker by just under 400 votes. The Republican winner will be a heavy favorite to hold the open seat in November.

Democrats will challenge two-term US Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) in a 13th District that is more Republican under the new redistricting plan. The Democratic winner, as expected, is retired Army General Leela Gray. Rep. Luna is favored, but this will be a competitive November race.

Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Tampa) new 14th District now becomes a Republican seat under the new redistricting map. The incumbent, of course, will be a factor in the general election, but this is her first real challenge during 20 years of service in the House. The Republican winner is former state Representative Mike Beltran who scored a convincing victory last night over seven opponents.

In the open 16th District from which veteran US Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) is retiring, the easy winner was Trump endorsed Sydney Gruters, the wife of Republican National Committee chairman Jon Gruters. She is now the heavy favorite opposite former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner who won the Democratic primary.

The 19th District featured no less than five candidates who either won or sought office in other states including former US Reps. Chris Collins (R-NY) and Madison Cawthorn (R-NC). The winner, however, was Floridian Jim Schwartzel who owns a local radio station. He will replace Rep. Donalds in the congressional delegation with what promises to be a strong general election win.

In the 20th District, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) successfully moved from her previous district to capture the heavily minority seat in last night’s Democratic primary with a plurality victory. She is now again safe in the general election.

The open 22nd District, where Rep. Wasserman Schultz could have run, is another of the seats the Republicans must convert. This district begins in the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs and stretches to the Gulf of America. 

Businessman Casey Askar was the convincing Republican winner. He will now face technology executive Pia Dandiya who scored a 69% Democratic primary winner. Mr. Askar begins the general election in the favorite’s position.

Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) is retiring from her 24th District, the safest Democratic seat in the state under the new map, and her hand-picked successor, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, won a close Democratic primary victory over state Sen. Shevrin Jones (D-Miami) and five others. Mr. Gilbert is now a lock to win the general election.

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) chose to run in new District 25, which is the fourth seat the Republicans have targeted to flip. Rep. Moskowitz won a decisive Democratic primary in a new district where more Democrats voted in the primary than Republicans. Rep. Moskowitz’s opponent in the general election will be Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer who won a crowded GOP primary. 

The new 25th contains about half of Rep. Moskowitz’s previous 23rd CD, but the carryover section has more Republicans than Democrats. The partisan lean of 52.3R – 47.0D (Dave’s Redistricting App) gives Mr. Singer a slight edge.

Finally, in District 27, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) will face, as expected, former news anchor Elliott Rodriguez in the general election. Mr. Rodriguez’s 53-47% victory over congressional aide Robin Peguero was weaker than expected, however.

Alaska

The Senate race was the big story of the evening as former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) looks to be finishing a bit ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) with Republican Daniel Sullivan, Jr. finishing a distant third. Republican Gerald Heikes and Democrat David Leslie are in a tight battle for fourth place. 

Third and fourth are important even though the involved candidates are getting just 1 and 2 percent of the vote because the top four finishers advance to the general election. 

Count on there being a great deal of political maneuvering after these votes are finalized as it relates to the third and fourth slots. Individuals qualifying from those positions have the option of withdrawing. The Alaska Senate contest has already been polling close, and last night’s results confirmed the early surveys.

In the open Governor’s race, though the first and second place finishers are Democrats, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and ex-state Senator Tom Begich, the total Republican vote spread among a dozen candidates tallied 13,000 more votes than the Democratic aggregate total. 

The third-place finisher appears locked for Republican former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson. The fourth qualifying position is up for grabs as more than 1/3 of the vote remains to be tallied. Former Independent Gov. Bill Walker could only manage to attract 4.1% through the preliminary counting process and will not advance into the general election.

In the House, at-large US Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) secured the first position and could possibly exceed majority support when all votes are counted. The second qualifier is Independent Bill Hill, while the third and fourth positions appear headed to Democrats. The primary vote solidifies Rep. Begich’s position as the definitive front runner for re-election.

Wyoming

At-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) easily clinched the open Republican Senate primary with a 65% victory percentage over two opponents. She will advance to the general election against Democrat James Byrd, a former state Representative. Rep. Hageman becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring US Senator Cynthia Lummis (R).

In the open Governor’s race, state Senator Eric Barlow (R-Green River) claimed the Republican nomination defeating Trump endorsed Megen Degenfelder, the state Superintendent of Public Instruction, and retired Marine Corps Colonel Brent Bien. Sen. Barlow advances to the general election against the new Democratic nominee, restaurant owner Ken Casner who was unopposed in his primary. Sen. Barlow is a lock to win the Governorship in November and succeed retiring Gov. Mark Gordon (R).

Secretary of State and former state Representative Chuck Gray won the Republican nomination defeating businessman Steve Friess and former Bureau of Land Management Official Kevin Christensen among others. The Democratic winner is former state Sen. Lisa Kinney. As with the other two open statewide races, Mr. Gray will also be a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and replace Rep. Hageman as Wyoming’s lone US Representative.

CA-14 Special Election

A close special election to immediately replace resigned US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) will likely take several days if not more than a week to finalize under California’s elongated ballot counting system. At this writing, state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) leads Bay Area Rapid Transit board member and former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez (D) by a tight 51-49% count with about 60% of the projected votes counted.

Regardless of this special election final outcome, both Sen. Wahab and Ms. Hernandez will compete in the regular general election because each advanced from the June 2nd jungle primary. The special election winner will immediately take the seat and serve the balance of the current term.