PRIMARY RESULTS
August 18th Results
Three states, Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming, held their primary elections last Tuesday, along with the special election in California’s 14th Congressional District. A total of 46 states have now held at least their initial nomination vote. The remaining four places, Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island hold their primaries in early September.
Alaska
The Senate race was the big story Tuesday evening as former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) finished ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) with Republican Daniel Sullivan, Jr. finishing a distant third. Republican Gerald Heikes and Democrat David Leslie are in an unresolved battle for fourth place. Third and fourth are important even though the involved candidates are getting just 1 and 2 percent of the vote because the top four finishers advance to the general election.
In the open Governor’s race, though the first and second place finishers are Democrats, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and ex-state Senator Tom Begich, the total Republican vote spread among a dozen candidates tallied 13,000 more votes than the Democratic aggregate total. The third-place finisher appears locked for Republican former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson. The fourth qualifying position is up for grabs as more than 1/3 of the vote remains to be tallied. Former Independent Gov. Bill Walker could only manage to attract 4.1% through the preliminary counting process and will not advance into the general election.
In the House, at-large US Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) secured the first position with 46% of the overall vote. The second qualifier is Independent Bill Hill with just under 31%, while the third and fourth positions appear headed to Democrats albeit with small percentages. The primary vote solidifies Rep. Begich’s position as the definitive front runner for re-election.
CA-14
The special election to fill the vacant San Francisco East Bay Area 14th District from which US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned has still not been decided and won’t be for some time. State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) director Melissa Hernandez (D), the former mayor of Dublin, CA, are locked in a tight contest with the Senator holding a tenuous 51-49% lead. It will likely be some time before the outcome is determined. The state has until September 25th to certify this election.
Regardless of the outcome, the pair will both advance to the regular general election for the full term because they finished first and second in the regular primary election held on June 2nd.
Florida
Despite former National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman outraising state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville) by a 16:1 ratio ($15.9 million raised vs. $975,000 through July 29), the financial advantage failed to translate into votes. Rep. Nixon, a Democratic Socialist candidate, scored another victory for her faction with a convincing 55-45% win over Mr. Vindman. Ms. Nixon now faces appointed Sen. Ashley Moody who won her Republican nomination with just under 80% of the vote.
Turning to the House, two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), dogged with sexual misconduct accusations, lost his renomination to former news anchorman Ryan Elijah. The challenger’s 47-34% victory margin translated into an 8,000+ vote spread. Rep. Mills becomes the 11th House member to lose renomination this year. Mr. Elijah now faces former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton who, as predicted, won the Democratic primary. Mr. Elijah will be favored in a new 7th District that carries a 56.5R – 42.5D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).
In the Governor’s race, also as expected, US Rep. Byron Donalds won a convincing Republican primary victory as did former Republican and ex-Independent Congressman David Jolly in the Democratic primary. Rep. Donalds will be favored in the general election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was ineligible to seek a third term.
Wyoming
At-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) easily clinched the open Republican Senate primary with a 65% victory percentage over two opponents. She will advance to the general election against Democrat James Byrd, a former state Representative. Rep. Hageman becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring US Senator Cynthia Lummis (R).
In the open Governor’s race, state Senator Eric Barlow (R-Green River) claimed the Republican nomination defeating Trump endorsed Megen Degenfelder, the state Superintendent of Public Instruction, and retired Marine Corps Colonel Brent Bien. Sen. Barlow advances to the general election against the new Democratic nominee, restaurant owner Ken Casner who was unopposed in his primary. Sen. Barlow is a lock to win the Governorship in November and succeed retiring Gov. Mark Gordon (R).
Secretary of State and former state Representative Chuck Gray won the Republican nomination for the open at-large US House seat defeating businessman Steve Friess and former Bureau of Land Management Official Kevin Christensen among others. The Democratic winner is former state Sen. Lisa Kinney. As with the other two open statewide races, Mr. Gray will also be a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and replace Rep. Hageman as Wyoming’s lone US Representative.
SENATE
Arkansas
Once again, we see widely conflicting polling for a race with the two polls conducted roughly within the same time frame. Hendrix College surveyed the Arkansas electorate (8/11-12; 1,217 AR likely general election voters; SMS text; weighted) and found Sen. Tom Cotton (R) trailing his Democratic opponent, farmer Hallie Shoffner by a 47-44% margin. J.L. Partners, testing the electorate just days later (8/15-17; 500 AR likely general election voters; live interview & text) projected Sen. Cotton posting a 51-39% advantage. The latter poll result is better aligned with Arkansas electoral history and trends.
Massachusetts
A recently released Suffolk University survey (for the Boston Globe; 8/13-16; 500 MA likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Sen. Ed Markey expanding his previous Democratic primary lead over US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). According to Suffolk, in anticipation of the September 1st primary vote, Sen. Markey leads Rep. Moulton 52-38%.
Minnesota
Survey USA was back in Minnesota again testing the state races for KSTP television in St. Paul (8/13-17; 661 MN likely general election voters; online). In the open Senate race, S-USA found Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) leading Republican former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya (R) by a 46-41% clip. S-USA frequently polls Minnesota, but they badly missed the August 11th Democratic primary result. Heading into the election, they projected US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) ahead of Ms. Flanagan, 42-40%. The end result found Ms. Flanagan winning 59-39%.
New Hampshire
As the September 8th New Hampshire statewide primary approaches, St. Anselm College has released an extensive survey of the Granite State electorate – and the clearest point of consensus among respondents is that they essentially dislike everyone.
The St. Anselm online poll, conducted August 17-18, surveyed 1,411 likely midterm voters. Of these, 733 are self‑identified Democrats or Independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary, and 678 are Republicans or Independents choosing to vote in the GOP primary. Regionally, 710 respondents reside in the eastern 1st Congressional District and 701 in the western 2nd District.
Voters express deep pessimism about the direction of the country and the state. Only 28 percent believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, compared to 65 percent who say it is on the wrong track. New Hampshire fares slightly better but still negative: 31 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 52 percent believe it is on the wrong track.
In the open Senate race, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leads former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by a 48-41% clip. If former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown became the Republican nominee, Rep. Pappas’ lead grows to 49-37 percent.
South Carolina
In the televised debate a week before the August 25th special Senate runoff election, appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R) admitted in answering a question about Taiwan that she is not familiar with national security issues, only that she “supports the military.” It remains to be seen if Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) can use this comment to his advantage and overcome her perceived lead. No polling has been released on this race, but turnout will again be the order of the day for both candidates. Tuesday’s winner will then face physician Annie Andrews (D) in the general election.
HOUSE
FL-9
One of two US House races left undecided on primary election night now days later has been made final. Former Deputy Assistant Defense Department Secretary Dan Green was declared the winner of the close Republican primary in the newly drawn central Florida 9th District that is now a Republican seat. Mr. Green defeated water district board member and rancher Ben Butler by just under 600 votes. In all, seven Republicans competed for the party nomination. Mr. Green will now challenge veteran Democrat Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) in what will be a competitive general election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new FL-9 partisan lean is 58.9R – 40.2D, thus giving Mr. Green the edge despite Rep. Soto’s incumbency advantage.
MA-8
A new Z to A Research survey (conducted for the Leaders We Deserve PAC; 8/5-6; 469 MA-8 likely Democratic primary voters; online) finds 13-term Congressman Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) in a renomination race that is trending closer. According to the Z to A poll results in preparation for the state’s primary election, Rep. Lynch’s lead over attorney Patrick Roath has dropped to 50-43%. In mid-July, Z to A found the Congressman leading 54-32%. This will be another nomination battle to watch on September 1st.
MI-7
The Lansing-anchored congressional seat was always predicted to be a 2026 battleground, and the first post-primary poll confirms that the race will be a toss-up. The Democratic firm Global Strategy Group polled the district for the House Majority PAC (8/11-13; 500 MI-7 likely general election voters; live interview) and found Democratic challenger William Lawrence edging freshman US Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) by a 49-47% split, which means a virtual tie. Expect this race to remain a toss-up all the way to the November 3rd election day.
NH-1
The aforementioned St. Anselm’s College poll finds the open Democratic primary evolving into a toss-up (26-24%) between former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan and ex-Portsmouth City Council member Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
NY-21
J.L. Partners also surveyed the open 21st District congressional campaign and here, too, found a different ballot test result than a previous pollster. The JLP survey (8/15-17; 500 NY-21 likely general election voters; live interview & text) found Republican businessman Anthony Constantino leading Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien by a 53-40% margin. Earlier in August, Survey USA tested the NY-21 electorate (8/4-8; 612 NY-21 likely general election voters) and projected Mr. Gendebien with the advantage, 43-39%.
PA-1
In one of three congressional districts that voted for Kamala Harris but sends a Republican to the US House, Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) continues to master his district. He is once again a major target this year, but a new Democratic polling firm conducting a survey for party nominee Bob Harvie, a Bucks County Commissioner, still posts the Congressman to a lead. The Global Strategy Group (8/5-9; 500 PA-1 likely general election voters; live interview) sees Rep. Fitzpatrick leading Mr. Harvie, 47-43 percent. In his five victorious elections, Rep. Fitzpatrick has averaged 54.7% of the vote.
GOVERNOR
Rhode Island
Another poll finds Gov. Dan McKee in grave danger of losing his Democratic renomination battle to former corporate executive and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Helena Foulkes. Embold Research, polling for the Pell Center at Salve Regina University (8/3-11; 857 RI likely Democratic primary voters; online & text), produced a 48-28% ballot test result in the challenger’s favor. In 2022, within a crowded field, Gov. McKee defeated Ms. Foulkes, 33-30%.
