ELECTION RESULTS
Oklahoma
Tuesday’s Republican gubernatorial runoff proved to be a nail‑biter, but former state Budget Director and ex‑state Senator Mike Mazzei edged Attorney General Gentner Drummond with 50.3 percent of the vote. Mr. Mazzei, who received endorsements from President Trump and term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), now becomes a general election prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson (D-Lawton), the state House Minority Leader who won her party’s June primary.
In the Democratic U.S. Senate runoff, nurse and Democratic Socialist N’Kiyla Thomas easily defeated retired attorney and minister Jim Priest. She now faces US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), where she enters the general election as a clear underdog. The winner will succeed appointed Senator Alan Armstrong (R), who replaced Markwayne Mullin after President Trump appointed him Homeland Security Secretary.
South Carolina
Appointed Sen. Darline Graham won Tuesday’s South Carolina special Republican U.S. Senate runoff, defeating Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) with 52.5 percent of the vote.
The pivotal area was Myrtle Beach and the northeastern 7th Congressional District. This is the place where President Trump held a rally for Ms. Graham on Saturday and the district that US Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet) represents. Mr. Fry finished third in the Senate primary but endorsed Ms. Graham in the runoff. In Horry County, the region’s population anchor, Sen. Graham received 73 percent of the vote and posted similar margins in the surrounding counties.
Sen. Darline Graham now advances to the general election, where she will be favored against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who won her party’s nomination outright in the June 2nd regular primary.
GA-13
The runoff election to fill the late Congressman David Scott’s (D) seat for the remainder of this legislative session was held this week in Georgia. Former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair defeated the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott, by a 54-46% margin. Ms. Scott had placed first in the initial special election in late July with 46 percent against four Democratic opponents but was forced into a secondary election because she did not obtain majority support.
Mr. Blair takes office immediately but will serve only until the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd. The regular cycle Democratic nominee is state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn), who won the May primary outright with 56 percent against five opponents, including Mr. Blair. She is expected to win the November general election easily in a district with a 68.9D–29.5R partisan lean, according to Dave’s Redistricting App.
SENATE
Iowa
Suffolk University is the most recent polling institution to survey the Iowa statewide races. The poll (8/20-23; 500 IA likely general election voters; live interview) finds US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) leading state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) by a 45-41% margin. Iowa is a must-win for Republicans to hold their Senate majority.
Massachusetts
This coming Tuesday’s Massachusetts primary features a Democratic challenge to Sen. Ed Markey from US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). According to the University of New Hampshire’s Bay State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online and text), Sen. Markey holds a commanding 63-28 percent lead over Rep. Moulton and appears well positioned to secure renomination and a third full Senate term. Mr. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 and served 36 years before winning his Senate seat.
Nebraska
Two years ago Independent Dan Osborn was able to secure the Democratic base and for most of the campaign was ahead, or within the polling margin of error, of Sen. Deb Fischer (R). At the campaign’s end, Sen. Fischer was a six-point winner. With the 2026 Legalize Marijuana candidate dropping out of the race as did the Democratic nominee and likewise endorsing Osborn to give him a one-on-one shot against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), we see the same dynamic again materializing.
A recently released Impact Research poll for the Osborn campaign (8/9-13; 600 NE likely general election voters; live interview) finds the Ricketts-Osborn contest locked in a dead heat with both candidates drawing 47% preference. This consistent emerging electoral pattern will also likely end in a similar result, with the Republican winning going away.
New Hampshire
The University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll shows a significant new shift in the state’s open US Senate campaign. The perceived overall leader, Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), has lost some momentum. According to the survey results (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters; online), Rep. Pappas leads scientist Karishma Manzur by a reduced 47-34 percent margin headed into Tuesday’s primary – the first time he has fallen below 50 percent in any of the ten publicly released Democratic primary polls.
Even more striking, when paired with likely Republican nominee John E. Sununu, Mr. Pappas trails 45-43 percent, putting New Hampshire in play for November and offering Republicans a potential national boost.
HOUSE
CA-14
The special election to fill the vacant San Francisco East Bay Area 14th District from which US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned has now been decided. State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) officially defeated Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) director Melissa Hernandez (D), the former mayor of Dublin, CA, by a projected 53-47% though counting is still not complete under California’s elongated vote tabulation system.
Sen. Wahab will be sworn into the House to serve the balance of ex-Rep. Swalwell’s term. Both she and Ms. Hernandez will again face each other in the regular November election since both qualified from the June 2nd primary election for the ensuing term in the 120th Congress.
Florida
The three Florida congressional primaries that were too close to call on election night and several days after, have been decided. In the 9th District, former Deputy Assistant Defense Department Secretary Dan Green is now the official Republican nominee by a 587-vote margin over his closest Republican opponent and will challenge four-term US Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) in a district that is now decidedly Republican. This is one of the four targeted seats the GOP must flip under the new redistricting plan. The new 9th District now posts a partisan lean of 58.9R – 40.2D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statisticians.
In the safely Republican open central Florida 11th District, business owner Joe Strada defeated former state Senator Carey Baker by 393 votes after the machine recount verified the initial results. Mr. Strada is now a lock to replace retiring Rep. Dan Webster (R-Claremont) in the general election. The 11th carries a 59.0R – 40.2D partisan lean (DRA calculation).
In the 21st District Democratic primary, Coast Guard Reserve officer James Martin scored an official 362-vote victory to secure the party nomination. Mr. Martin, however, will be a decided underdog to US Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fort Pierce) in a district that favors Republicans by a 58.6R – 40.7D district (DRA calculation).
MA-6
The Global Strategy Group surveyed the 6th Congressional District primary electorate (7/30-8/2; 400 MA-6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found former Biden Administration official and ex-Andover city Selectman Dan Koh, who lost the 3rd Congressional District 2018 Democratic primary by just 145 votes, leading this campaign with 34% voter preference. Cryptocurrency executive John Beccia follows with 15 percent, and state Rep. Tran Nguyen (D-Andover) is close behind at 14 percent. It appears Mr. Koh is well on his way to reversing his close loss to current US Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Westford) eight years ago.
NH-1
The University of New Hampshire’s Granite State poll is predicting close finishes in both the open Democratic and Republican 1st Congressional District primaries scheduled for Tuesday. Among Democrats, the Granite State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 463 likely Democratic voters; online) shows former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan leading ex‑Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – by a 24-19% margin in a seven‑candidate field. Though support levels are low, both candidates appear viable heading into the September 8th vote.
On the Republican side, the 1st District contest is even tighter. Among 464 likely GOP primary voters surveyed, business owner and former NH Republican Party Vice-Chair Hollie Noveletsky leads auto dealer Anthony DiLorenzo by a narrow 28-25 percent split. New Hampshire’s 1st CD is one of the nation’s most competitive, ensuring a hard‑fought general election. Four-term Democratic US Rep. Chris Pappas is running for the US Senate.
OH-1
Another of the redistricting targeted members is two-term US Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati). A newly released Quantus Insight survey (8/21-24; 509 OH-1 likely general election voters) sees a toss-up race resulting with the incumbent leading his Republican opponent, former CIA Case Officer Eric Conroy. The ballot test finds Rep. Landsman holding a precarious 48-45% lead when those who say they are leaning toward one of the candidates are included.
Texas
The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University conducted polls in three South Texas congressional districts over the August 18-22 period. The pollsters questioned likely voter universes in the three districts, and the mechanism was implemented through text and online Q & A. The polling analysis indicates that 700 respondents were interviewed in both TX-15 and 34, while 600 were surveyed in TX-28.
In the 15th District that stretches from the region south of Austin and east of San Antonio directly to the Mexican border and includes the cities of Gonzales, Beeville, Alice, and part of McAllen, Grammy Award winning Latino musical artist Bobby Pulido (D) leads US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) by a 50-45% margin. This race will be difficult for the two-term incumbent to hold. Clearly, TX-15 is a legitimate Democratic conversion opportunity.
In the 28th CD, US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), after trailing Webb County Judge (Executive) Tino Tijerina (R) in early polling, posts a 45-34% advantage in this most recent poll. The Laredo-McAllen anchored 28th is one of the five districts the new redistricting map is supposed to yield to Republicans, so not converting this seat will be a major blow to GOP hopes of saving their small majority.
In the Brownsville-Harlingen anchored 34th District that now stretches northward to encompass some of the Corpus Christi suburbs, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) is another of the South Texas members who are supposed to lose their re-election under the new redistricting map. The Texas Southern poll projects Rep. Gonzalez as holding just a 45-42% edge over Republican attorney Eric Flores, which is not a strong showing for the five-term incumbent. This contest appears on track to potentially recording a Republican victory.
GOVERNOR
Iowa
The aforementioned Suffolk University Iowa poll (see Iowa Senate above) also tested the state’s open Governor’s campaign. While the survey results (8/20-23; 500 IA likely general election voters; live interview) projected a Republican lead in the Senate race, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate has the advantage. The gubernatorial ballot test projects Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand (D) ahead of Republican businessman Zach Lahn, 48-44%. Clearly, both the Iowa Senate and Governor’s races are going to be hotly contested in October.
Rhode Island
Turning to the Ocean State’s primary next Wednesday, Massachusetts‑based Emerson College released new data (Aug. 21-22; 528 likely Democratic primary voters; mixed sampling techniques) again showing Gov. Dan McKee badly trailing Helena Foulkes, who narrowly lost to him four years ago. Ms. Foulkes leads 45-30%, a result consistent with polling throughout the cycle. Therefore, it becomes difficult to see a feasible path for Gov. McKee to win renomination on September 9th.
