Polling shows Dan Osborn ahead in Nebraska as voter discontent shapes the 2026 race
SurveyUSA went into the field to test the Cornhusker State of Nebraska’s electorate and it appears we may be seeing deja vu all over again in the state’s US Senate race.
In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn came from nowhere to give Republican Sen. Deb Fischer a tough race when it appeared that she would run virtually unopposed. As September closed that year, Mr. Osborn was running consistently ahead in multiple polls, yet ultimately lost by almost seven percentage points – despite late polling suggesting Sen. Fischer’s average advantage was under two points.
This year, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who won the 2024 special election with 63 percent of the vote to serve the balance of the current term and now seeks a full six‑year stint, faces Mr. Osborn as the latter man returns to try again. Approaching mid‑September, a familiar pattern is emerging: a new poll again shows Osborn with a slight lead.
The SurveyUSA data (9/8-13; 503 likely Nebraska general‑election voters; live interview and text) places Osborn ahead of Ricketts, 46-42 percent. The only other publicly released poll since the May 12th primary, conducted by Democratic firm Impact Research (8/9-13; 600 likely voters; live interview), found the race deadlocked at 47 percent apiece.
SurveyUSA segmented its current results by congressional district. While the cell sizes are too small to draw firm conclusions, they offer directional insight.
As expected, Sen. Ricketts performed strongly in the heavily Republican 3rd District and trailed in the Omaha based 2nd CD. Raising eyebrows, however, was his deficit in the Republican leaning 1st District that Congressman Mike Flood (R-Norfolk/ Lincoln) represents. With only 176 respondents in that segment, the finding is not definitive, but the ballot test deficit is enough to command the attention of Sen. Ricketts’ political strategists.
Another unexpected finding came from the favorability ratings. Statewide responses for President Trump, GOP Gov. Jim Pillen, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Lynne Walz, Sen. Ricketts, and Mr. Osborn all registered negative images. Seeing all statewide figures viewed negatively may reflect the broader political frustration appearing across much of the country.
Supporting the frustration interpretation, a YouGov national online survey for CBS News (9/8-11; 1,809 registered voters) found nearly identical unfavorable ratings for both major parties: Republicans were negatively viewed by a 43:56 ratio and Democrats at a 44:56 negative proportion.
Yet even with Gov. Pillen’s poor 35:52 favorability score, he still leads Ms. Walz – a former state Senator and cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz – by a 43-35 percent margin in the SUSA ballot test. Such conflicting and sometimes counterintuitive results have seemingly become commonplace throughout much of the country.
As Republicans appear to be facing a difficult national environment – potentially losing the House majority and seeing their Senate advantage threatened – the question becomes whether voters will turn to a Democratic Party they view with comparable dissatisfaction.
The closing weeks of the 2026 campaign may therefore produce unexpected messaging choices and unconventional strategic decisions as candidates and party leaders navigate through what increasingly looks like a demoralized electorate.
