The Texas Under-Poll

Ken Paxton actually positioned to score a surprise victory in November?

Possibly the most‑polled 2026 Senate race is found in the Lone Star State of Texas, but the ballot‑test numbers obscure a pattern that has been evident since the 2020 election: a persistent and often significant Republican under‑poll. 

Since the May 26th Texas Republican runoff election, 30 public polls have been released from 22 different polling entities including professional survey research firms and academic institutions. From these 30 polls, state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) has led in 24 studies with Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) ahead in four, while two have produced tied results.  

Since September 1st, Talarico has led in all but one poll — the Status Intelligence survey (Sept. 22-24; 856 likely voters) showing a 48-48 dead heat. Across the 13 polls released since September 1st, Talarico’s average lead is +3.3 percentage points. Overlaying the long‑standing Texas polling pattern, however, suggests Paxton may be in better shape than the topline numbers indicate. 

From 2020 onward, major polling aggregators — including 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin, and the Texas Tribune — have cataloged Texas surveys and calculated average margins for statewide candidates. The results consistently show Republican candidates outperforming their polling averages.

In the 2020 election, President Trump carried Texas by 5.6 percentage points, but the polling average going into the election gave him only a +1.2 percent edge over then-former Vice President Joe Biden. Therefore, the under-poll figure in this race was 4.4.

Sen. John Cornyn (R) was seeking re-election that year against Democrat M.J. Hegar. The aggregate polling average for this race was Cornyn +5.8. He was victorious by a 9.6 margin for an under-count just under four percentage points.

In 2022, the only major Texas statewide office on the ballot was the Governor’s election. In that year, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was seeking re-election against former Congressman, 2018 US Senate nominee, and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D). Gov. Abbott won the election with a 10.8 point spread but his polling average was only +8.9. Therefore, the under-poll figure in this race was a closer but still significant 1.9.

Turning to 2024 where Mr. Trump rebounded to win the presidency and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won a third term we again see the persistent Texas Republican under-poll.

In the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump carried the Lone Star State over Kamala Harris with a 13.6 percentage point margin, but his aggregate polling average was a much lesser +7.5 heading into the election. Thus, the under-poll factor in this race was 6.1 percentage points.

Sen. Cruz, in his race with then-Congressman Colin Allred (D), saw close polling throughout the campaign. The aggregate polling average for the general election was Cruz +4.0, yet he won the election with an 8.5 percentage point margin for an under-poll factor of 4.5 percentage points.

Even in the 2026 Texas Republican primary, we see significant polling misses. While Mr. Paxton led the Senate primary election in polling with an aggregate average of +4.2, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the initial election with a 1.5 point spread, meaning a 5.7 point Cornyn under-poll.

Though the pollsters correctly projected a Paxton victory in the Republican runoff, their numbers drastically underestimated the final margin. The Paxton aggregate average was +10.9 points, but he defeated Sen. Cornyn by 27.6 points, an under-poll figure of 16.7 percentage points.

This cumulative record brings us to the 2026 Senate general election. Across the 30 polls since the runoff, Mr. Talarico’s aggregate average lead is +3.3 points; since September 1st, from 13 polls, his edge has narrowed to +1.1 point. 

Applying a reasonable under‑poll factor of approximately 3-4 percentage points — consistent with recent statewide races — suggests that Ken Paxton may actually be favorably positioned to score a surprise victory on November 3rd.