Mike Rogers – Abdul El-Sayed Nail-biter in The Wolverine State
With the Senate majority up for grabs, the Michigan race continues to be the national point race toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress.
If GOP nominee Mike Rogers wins the race, thus converting a Democratic seat to the Republican column, it becomes very difficult for Democrats to capture enough Republican seats elsewhere to overcome their current 53-47 deficit. If Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed prevails — combined with the North Carolina seat likely flipping to the Democrats — the path toward the net four‑seat gain needed to eclipse the Republican majority becomes considerably more achievable.
Republican Rogers, a former seven‑term Congressman who lost the 2024 open Senate race by just 19,006 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast despite being outspent by a 6:1 ratio, returns with a stronger chance to win in 2026.
Democrats nominated former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department Director El‑Sayed in a much closer primary than polling had projected. Nine pollsters found him leading by an average of 15 points heading into the August primary, yet he won by only one point — and even failed to carry his home county.
In the general election, polling consistently shows a small El‑Sayed lead, but those numbers may be deceiving. Polling aggregators — 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, and the Silver Bulletin — place his cycle‑to‑date advantage between 3.0 and 3.2 points. Since the August 4th primary, the average has slipped to 2.8.
For comparison, at the beginning of October during Rogers’ 2024 campaign, Democrat Elissa Slotkin’s polling advantage averaged 6.4 points across 35 surveys conducted from the August 6th primary through October 1st. In the final month, Rogers nearly erased the entire margin, with Slotkin ultimately winning by just three‑tenths of one percentage point.
Therefore, combining Rogers under-polling in the 2024 general election and El-Sayed’s considerable over-polling in the 2026 Democratic primary suggests that we will again see another close finish in this most critical of Senate campaigns.
Resources are not a problem for either nominee. Through the July 15th pre-primary Federal Election Commission disclosure report, El-Sayed had raised $14.5 million while Rogers had attracted $10.8 million. Because El-Sayed had to overcome two strong Democratic opponents, his available assets were less during the last reporting period. He held $2.2 million, most of which would be spent in the final days before the August 4th primary, whereas Rogers had $4.5 million, most of which he held over for the general election.
Outside spending is heavy on both sides, with media reports suggesting roughly $55 million has been spent on Rogers’ behalf and about $45 million aiding El‑Sayed.
With President Trump’s approval numbers in the lowest range of his career and gas and grocery prices remaining high, the political climate — and Michigan’s statewide voting history — cuts in El‑Sayed’s favor. Conversely, El‑Sayed’s weak primary performance relative to his polling, and his failure to carry Wayne County — signaling limited strength within the Black electorate — gives Rogers a legitimate opening to assemble a winning coalition.
As is the case in virtually every competitive race this cycle, the candidate who maximizes turnout within their own party, rather than mastering the difficult task of persuading wavering voters from the other side, will prevail. At this point in the pivotal Michigan Senate race, it remains to be seen who will perform better.
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