The Sunflower State Now a Battleground State for Senate Control?
For the third time since the 2014 election, the Kansas Senate race is polling close. In both the 2014 and 2020 contests, the Republican candidate, Sen. Pat Roberts in ‘14 and then-US Representative Roger Marshall running in an open race six years ago, appeared to be in trouble in early October but rebounded to score low double-digit victories.
The emerging data in the 2026 Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton race suggests that the same pattern may be reappearing. Sen. Marshall is seeking a second term, while Mr. Hamilton, a first‑time candidate, Methodist pastor, and author, captured a crowded Democratic primary on August 4th with just under 35 percent of the vote.
General election polling is essentially even. Two polling aggregators, 270toWin and RealClearPolitics, show Marshall leading by less than a percentage point, while FiftyPlusOne and Silver Bulletin find Hamilton ahead by similarly narrow margins.
The most recent trend, however, shows movement toward the Republican side. Mr. Hamilton held small leads in three polls conducted between September 13th and 24th, but surveys from September 22nd through October 1st now show Sen. Marshall tied or slightly ahead.
Twelve years ago, when Sen. Roberts appeared headed for defeat, he trailed in 21 of 28 polls conducted from September 1st through Election Day; this, after barely winning his August primary by a 48-41 percent count. Yet, Sen. Roberts ultimately prevailed 53-43.
The 2014 Kansas Senate race also featured a Democratic withdrawal designed to give Independent candidate Greg Orman a one‑on‑one opportunity against the veteran incumbent, similar to the Democratic nominee withdrawals seen this year in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Predictably, the switch to an Independent failed to alter the final outcome.
The 2020 race followed a similar trajectory. Mr. Marshall faced a credible Democratic opponent in former state Sen. Barbara Bollier, an eleven‑year Republican legislator who later switched parties after endorsing several Democratic candidates and losing key committee assignments. As a result of the legislative discipline imposed upon her, Sen. Bollier left the Republican Party and became a Democrat. Soon after, she became the 2020 Democratic US Senate nominee.
From September 15th through Election Day, Ms. Bollier led in three of eleven polls and the pair were tied in two others. In closing surveys from October 25th through November 1st, Mr. Marshall led in two polls and Ms. Bollier, one. The Marshall average lead was only three points, yet he won the election in November, 53-42%; an under‑poll factor of more than eight percentage points.
This year, six published polls have appeared since the August 4th primary. Mr. Hamilton has led in four, Sen. Marshall in three, with one tie. The latest surveys, from the Trafalgar Group (September 29 – October 1; 1,095 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and Siena University for the New York Times (September 22–30; 640 likely voters; live interviews), show a tie in Trafalgar’s results and Marshall one point ahead in Siena’s.
In the 2014 Roberts race, the under‑poll factor was ten points: the final four polls from Fox News, YouGov, and Public Policy Polling averaged a dead heat between Roberts and Orman, yet the Senator won by a full ten points. In 2020, the closing four polls from Public Policy Polling, GBAO Strategies, VCreek/AMG, and Data for Progress showed Mr. Marshall ahead by just over two points, but he won by eleven.
If the polling pattern observed in the 2014 and 2020 Kansas Senate races again unfolds in 2026, Sen. Marshall could be positioned to record a comfortable victory on Election Night despite what has been, as with Orman and Bollier before him, a strong Hamilton effort.
