Close polling ensures Dems remain financially and strategically engaged – and ready to pounce
For Democrats to claim a Senate majority, they must first protect all four of their vulnerable seats and then convert four Republican states. Because most of the competitive states lean strongly Republican, party leaders have focused on creating as many competitive contests as possible.
This cycle, they have persuaded their Senate nominees in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota to withdraw, allowing Democrats to consolidate support behind Independent candidates who, in each case, are former Democrats.
They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, urging Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead to step aside in favor of Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, but she refused. Ironically, Montana is the state where the strategy might have been most effective because the Independent candidate here has the strongest background and campaign ability.
While Nebraska Independent Dan Osborn is again giving Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) a competitive race, just as he did two years ago against Sen. Deb Fischer (R), he and the other two Independents remain underdogs. Democrats had little to lose by attempting to elevate Independents in these deeply Republican states, but the gambit is likely to fall short.
This week, party leaders announced seven‑figure media buys in two additional Republican states, Mississippi and South Carolina, further expanding the Senate playing field.
Mississippi remains a reliably Republican state, but Democrats are now committing significant resources to promote their nominee, Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom. According to The Down Ballot political blog, national Democrats plan to spend more than $2 million in the final weeks of the campaign in a long‑shot effort to upset Sen. Cindy Hyde‑Smith (R), who is seeking a second full term.
Ms. Hyde‑Smith was originally appointed to succeed Sen. Thad Cochran (R) following his resignation for health reasons, then won the special election to complete his term, and secured a full six-year stint in 2020.
The most recent public Mississippi Senate poll, released by Data for Progress in August (8/5-15; 1,018 likely voters), found Sen. Hyde‑Smith leading Mr. Colom and Independent attorney Ty Pinkins by a 44-38-7% margin. The Democratic leaders’ decision not to invest earlier suggests they viewed these August numbers as inconsistent with their internal data. Now, however, they will test whether a major media buy can shift the race; if it does, Mississippi will likely move higher on their target list.
South Carolina is another Republican state where Democrats have already been spending and will continue to do so. Since the August special Republican primary and runoff that nominated appointed Sen. Darline Graham to succeed her late brother, Lindsey Graham, Democrat Annie Andrews has dominated the airwaves while Sen. Graham has yet to mount a countering response.
Major Republican spending is expected soon to bolster Graham’s campaign and attempt to secure the race before early voting concludes. With state Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), poised for a landslide victory in the open Governor’s race, Republican turnout momentum will almost assuredly benefit Sen. Graham as well.
Even so, current polling shows a tight contest. A recent Insider Advantage survey (9/28-29; 1,200 likely voters) places Graham ahead just 46-45%, making the race tempting for Democrats to continue funding. The fundamentals still favor Sen. Graham, but the close polling ensures Democrats will remain financially and strategically engaged.
If any one of these long‑shot contests produces a Democratic upset, the investment would be well worth the cost and could well be decisive in propelling them into the Senate majority.
