Will the Land of 10,000 Lakes deliver electoral surprises?
One of the more intriguing states to watch in the coming election is Minnesota. Though long a reliably Democratic state, arguably the most reliable in the nation having last voted Republican for president in 1972, citizen unrest, a major governmental fraud scandal, and inconsistent polling data suggest the Northland could deliver electoral surprises.
Even the state’s premier politician, Senior Senator and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar, who has averaged 60 percent of the vote across her four U.S. Senate victories, is underperforming expectations in her open gubernatorial bid.
While she remains favored to defeat state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring) in the November 3rd general election, six post‑August 11th primary polls place Klobuchar’s average support at just 48.8 percent, well below her historical statewide performance. Since the primary, her average lead over Demuth is only 8.7 points, and a smaller 6.7 points in the four surveys conducted entirely in September and October.
The Senate race is even more competitive. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster for NBC and ESPN who began her media career covering Minnesota sports, is running a strong campaign against Democratic Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan.
Fundraising is roughly even. According to the July 22nd pre‑primary Federal Election Commission reports, Flanagan held an approximate $1 million receipts advantage, but Tafoya led in cash‑on‑hand, largely because the Lt. Governor had to survive a costly primary against U.S. Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake).
Five polling aggregator organizations: 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, and the Silver Bulletin, show Flanagan’s average lead at only three points, which is within the margin of error. Moreover, in three polls that ended their sampling periods on October 7th, Flanagan failed to reach 50 percent in any survey; her average lead is 3.7 points, and her mean support level is just 46.7 percent.
Ms. Tafoya’s focus on the government transfer‑payment fraud scandal, estimated by the House Oversight Committee at up to $9 billion, and with the Justice Department charging one program operator with stealing as much as $250 million, is also influencing the campaign.
Government corruption now ranks as a top issue in the Minnesota polling referenced above. If pollsters are accurately capturing Democratic support while undercounting Republican voters, a pattern observed in several recent election cycles, Minnesota could produce a major upset on election night. While Ms. Flanagan should still be considered the favorite, even a close statewide result would run counter to the broader “blue wave” narrative that Democrats are promoting.
The unusual political dynamics extend beyond statewide contests. In the Republican‑leaning southern 1st Congressional District, where Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 52.3R – 44.7D partisan lean, compared to the statewide 52.0D – 44.9R, two‑plus‑term U.S. Rep. Brad Finstad (R‑New Ulm) is showing unexpected weakness.
According to two surveys, one conducted in late September by Democratic pollster GBAO (9/18-21; 500 MN‑1 likely voters), Rep. Finstad trailed educator Jake Johnson (D) 47-46 percent. Just over two weeks later, media pollster SurveyUSA, surveying for Minnesota television station KTSP (10/4-9; 565 MN‑1 likely general election voters), confirmed the earlier finding with a 46-44% Johnson advantage.
In a cycle where Republicans are performing better than usual in Minnesota statewide races, and especially so considering Klobuchar is atop the ticket, it is surprising to see a GOP incumbent slipping into a competitive contest in a district with a favorable partisan lean.
On an election night when early indications suggest Democrats may post strong national results, a Republican “blip” in Minnesota would be highly unexpected. Closing developments in the Land of 10,000 Lakes will merit close monitoring.
