SENATE
Iowa
Three consecutive pollsters find US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) pulling ahead of state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) in their tight open Hawkeye State US Senate race.
The co/efficient survey research firm (10/15-19; 863 IA likely general election voters; live interview & text) posts Rep. Hinson to a 48-45% edge. The Trafalgar Group (10/13-15; 1,094 IA likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a similar 46-44% slight Hinson lead. The National Public Affairs research firm (10/8-12; 678 IA likely general election voters; live interview & text), polling within the same time frame, also produced a similar result. The NPA ballot test found Hinson holding a 47-44% lead. It is likely that the numbers will continue to fluctuate until the last campaign week.
Montana
Last week, the Concord Partners’ survey that boosted Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, to first place has largely been debunked. Quantus Insights released their latest data (10/15-18; 667 MT likely general election voters; SMS text-to-web) that restores former US Attorney Kurt Alme (R) to the race lead. According to Quantus, the contest breaks 44-28-21% with Mr. Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead trailing Mr. Alme. This result is consistent with the majority of other publicly released polls.
South Carolina
The Trafalgar Group released the sixth consecutive poll (from three Republican pollsters) that posts appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R) to a small lead over Democratic physician Annie Andrews who has been outspending the GOP nominee. The Trafalgar poll (10/16-18; 1,095 SC likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Ms. Graham posting a 49-46% slight edge over Dr. Andrews.
With AG Alan Wilson running strongly ahead in the Governor’s race, the turnout model will likely carry Ms. Graham through to at least a close victory in the Senate race. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) appointed Ms. Graham to fill the remainder of her brother’s final term. The late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) passed away in July unexpectedly, soon after winning the June Republican primary.
South Dakota
Countering a Concord Partners’ survey that found Independent Brian Bengs leading Sen. Mike Rounds (R), the two-term Senator and former Governor released the results of his internal Public Opinion Strategies survey. The poll (10/12-16; 500 SD likely voters; live interview) posts Sen. Rounds to a 54-37% advantage, much different than the previous Concord Partners’ released ballot test. The Republican poll is much closer to predictive South Dakota voting patterns and consistent with previously released surveys. Sen. Rounds is expected to clinch a third term on November 3rd.
HOUSE
FL-9
US Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), now competing in a new Republican leaning 9th District, released his internal SEA Polling & Strategic Design survey (10/13-15; 500 FL-9 likely general election voters) that finds he and former US Defense Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Dan Green (R) locked in a 41-41% tie. The 9th is one of the districts the Republican map drawers made more Republican and is predicted to move into the GOP column. The fact that Rep. Soto would release a poll only showing him tied is likely a good sign for Mr. Green.
FL-25
Florida’s new 25th District is one of four seats the Republicans designed to flip under the new congressional redistricting map. Saying that half of his former 23rd District constituency lies in new District 25, two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) decided to seek re-election in this new population dense coastal district that stretches from Boca Raton to Miami Beach along the Atlantic Ocean. The partisan lean, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, at 52.3R – 47.1D favors a Republican candidate.
The National Research polling firm, surveying for the Scott Singer campaign (10/12-15; 400 FL-25 likely general election voters), finds the former Boca Raton Mayor leading Rep. Moskowitz by a seven-point margin, 49-42%. The Moskowitz campaign, however, countered with their Public Policy Polling survey (10/21-22; 592 FL-25 likely general election voters; live interview & text) that projects the Congressman holding a 47-42% advantage.
OH-15
Another Republican incumbent, Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus), is seen trailing his Democratic opponent. According to a Hart Research Associates survey conducted for the House Majority PAC (10/9-12; 503 OH-15 likely general election voters), college professor Don Leonard (D) leads Rep. Carey by a 48-45% count, which is well within the polling margin of error. It is competition in seats like these that give Democrats their optimism for projecting a strong election night nationwide.
TX-15
A new poll again shows two-term US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) trailing Latino musica Grammy Award winner Bobby Pulido (D) by a significant margin, this time 51-44% margin. Statisticians at the Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center conducted the survey (10/13-16; sample size and methodology not released). Losing a South Texas Republican incumbent would be a major blow to GOP hopes of capturing an additional five seats from the Texas delegation.
TX-23
Normington Petts & Associates, polling for the House Majority PAC (10/5-7; 400 TX-23 likely general election voters), finds GOP nominee Brandon Herrera (R) and Democratic attorney Katy Padilla Stout tied at 46% apiece. The 23rd is now a Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 52.0R – 44.8D), but the CD, which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, is in the swing category. Currently, the seat is vacant due to Rep. Tony Gonzales’ (R-San Antonio) resignation. This is yet another Texas seat to watch on election night.
TX-35
Business owner Carlos De La Cruz (R), brother of US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), and police officer Johnny Garcia are competing for the newly drawn 35th CD that stretches from south San Antonio into east Texas. A just released Normington Petts & survey for House Majority PAC (10/12-14; 400 TX-35 likely general election voters), sees Officer Garcia posting a 47-45% slight lead over Mr. De La Cruz. The seat was drawn to elect a Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 50.9R – 46.7D), but this is another of those campaigns that are proving highly competitive.
GOVERNOR
Alabama
The most recent poll of the open Alabama Governor’s race, from the Cygnal research firm (10/16-17; 500 AL likely general election voters; online & text), suggests that the controversy over Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R) residence – a lawsuit, later dismissed, claimed that Mr. Tuberville did not meet the state’s seven-year residency requirement to run for state office because he had lived in Florida before his election to the Senate – has been put away. The Cygnal ballot test finds Sen. Tuberville leading former Sen. Doug Jones (D) by a 51-40% margin. In 2020, Mr. Tuberville unseated Sen. Jones with 60% of the vote.
Georgia
Quantus Insights released the seventh consecutive poll (from six different pollsters) that finds businessman Rick Jackson (R) holding a small lead over former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D). The Quantus poll (10/15-17; 755 GA likely general election voters; SMS text-to-web) sees Mr. Jackson claiming a tight 48-47% edge over Ms. Lance Bottoms. Though the race is a statistical tie, the fact that seven consecutive pollsters in September and October arrive at the same conclusion, and unlike other states Georgia polling has proven very accurate, it appears that Mr. Jackson is in favorable position to succeed term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R).
Iowa
The Iowa co/efficient survey referenced above (see Iowa Senate) also polled the state’s open Governor’s race (10/15-19; 863 IA likely general election voters; live interview & text). Here, co/efficient, and all other pollsters, find Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand continuing to post a lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn. This ballot test finds the Sand advantage at 49-45 percent. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third full term. Should Mr. Sand win the Governor’s election, he will flip the state’s top office to the Democratic Party.
Nevada
Once again, we see more polling data suggesting a very close Nevada gubernatorial contest, which is no surprise in the Silver State, a place that routinely features very close elections. The Democratic firm Global Strategy Group released their latest numbers (for the Aaron Ford campaign; 10/8-13; 700 NV likely general election voter; live interview) that project Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) clinging to a small 48-47% over Attorney General Aaron Ford (D).
New York
A shocking OnMessage survey (for Attorney General nominee Saritha Komatireddy; 10/12-14; 1,000 NY likely general election voters) finds Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) leading Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), 50-46%, while Ms. Komatireddy, the poll sponsor, trails Attorney General Letitia James (D), 51-45%.
According to analyst Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin publication that rates all pollsters, OnMessage received an A-grade. Though no other poll finds Mr. Blakeman leading, including a newly released Quinnipiac University poll (10/15-19; 1,167 NY likely general election voters) that finds Hochul ahead 55-41%, the OnMessage data suggest further attention to the NY Governor’s race could be warranted.
Oklahoma
A Workbench Strategy poll for Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson finds her coming into competitive range with race favorite, former Oklahoma Budget Secretary Mike Mazzei, the Republican nominee. According to the Workbench survey (10/8-13; 600 OK likely general election voters), Mr. Mazzei leads Ms. Munson, 49-45%. This poll is an outlier compared to other research, so it will be interesting to see if independent pollsters will produce a similar margin in the campaign’s closing days.
Rhode Island
While we have seen Democrats back Independent candidates in strong Republican states with moderate success, Republicans might have thrown their support to one in Rhode Island. An Embold Strategies survey for the Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy (10/5-8; 815 RI likely general election voters; online & text) found Democrat Helena Foulkes, who defeated Gov. Dan McKee in the September Democratic primary, leading Independent Ken Block and Republican Aaron Guckian by a 39-28-17% margin.
The Foulkes standing appears rather weak considering the combined Independent and Republican support figure would exceed the new Democratic nominee’s backing. Had the Republicans coalesced around Mr. Block, the race may have become competitive.
South Carolina
Attorney General Alan Wilson (R) posts a double-digit lead in his open race against state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Columbia) according to a National Public Affairs South Carolina voter survey (10/13-16; 604 SC likely general election voters; live interview & text). According to the NPA ballot test, Mr. Wilson has a 51-41-1-1% advantage over Rep. Johnson, physician Michael Addison, and businessman Walid Hakim.
The Trafalgar Group poll (10/16-18; 1,095 SC likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts even better numbers for Mr. Wilson. The Trafalgar ballot test projects a 53-37-4-2% spread for Wilson over Johnson, Addison, and Hakim.
Tennessee
Independent David Hatley’s $12 million campaign expenditure has not moved the political needle in his direction according to a just released Spry Strategies survey (10/10-16; 635 TN likely general election voters; SMS text-to-web). The poll finds Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continuing to lead the open Governor’s race with a 44-32-12% margin over Memphis Democratic City Councilwoman Jerri Green and Mr. Hatley, respectively. Sen. Blackburn is expected to win the Governor’s race and will then appoint her own replacement to the US Senate after her inauguration.
