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Abortion Not Moving AZ Swing Voters

Updated: May 17

Poll upends Biden and Beltway media spin

Abortion was a major vote driver in 2022, but the question currently being asked is will it also be one in 2024?  A new Arizona survey suggests the Biden campaign will not be happy with the findings.

With the Arizona state Supreme Court recently upholding a more than century old abortion law in response to the US Supreme Court overturning the Roe v. Wade decision in 2022, Fabrizio Lee & Associates (FLA), a premier public opinion research firm, tested the Arizona electorate for ex-President Trump’s campaign.


The firm surveyed 400 likely general election Arizona voters from April 7 to 11, 2024.


According to the poll analysis, the abortion issue’s heavy media coverage in the state has not yet swayed the swing voters. While Democrats are the group who largely mention abortion as the most important recent issue, independents, as well as a category FLA terms “Persuadables,” do not. 


The pollsters wanted to capture just how much of the attention being paid to the Arizona abortion ruling is affecting the state’s electorate. They asked: “Over the past couple of days, what ONE story about politics or world affairs has captured your attention enough that you are following that story? If there hasn’t been one, just say so.”

The responses yielded only 11% of the respondents naming the abortion decision as the subject matter being most followed. The top response was the Gaza/Israel issue (16%), and border/illegal immigration (13%) was next. 


Delving into the choices from the current Arizona sample, 24% of Democrats named abortion as the top story as compared to 7% of Persuadables, 6% of independents, and 5% of Republicans. 

Perhaps the most interesting part of the poll pertained to which presidential candidate’s abortion position the respondents more closely identified. The candidates’ positions were stated as follows:


“Donald Trump believes that the decision on abortion laws should be left up to the states so that voters in each state can decide. However, Trump is opposed to late-term abortion and would end federal taxpayer funding of abortions.”

“Joe Biden supports unrestricted access to universal abortion — including abortion up through the 9th month of pregnancy and he supports taxpayer funds to pay for abortions for any reason.” 

By a 51-40% split, Trump’s position was cited as being more favorable. Responses such as this suggest that Republican strategists’ pushing for a more aggressive response on the abortion issue to counter the Democrats’ advantage may have something upon which to build.

Dividing the responses into voter groups, Persuadables favored Trump’s position by a 45-41% clip; Independents move 50-39% in alignment with Trump’s position; and, predictably, so do 83% of Republicans and 13% of Democrats.

Therefore, President Biden appears not to be gaining new Arizona votes from the abortion controversy according to this survey sample — at least not in the short term. Thus, the ballot test, including Trump, Biden, Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and probable Libertarian Party nominee Lars Mapstead, finds Mr. Trump leading the field with a 42% to 37-10-2-1% margin, respectively. 

It is quite likely that an abortion initiative will be on the Arizona ballot this November. The Arizona for Abortion Access (AFAA) campaign is attempting to qualify and pass language into the state Constitution that would guarantee access to abortion procedures before fetal viability. 

Under Arizona initiative law, proponents must gather 383,923 valid Arizona-registered voter signatures before the July 3, 2024, deadline to appear on the November ballot. The signature qualification number represents 5% of the total votes cast in the Governor’s race in the most recent election (2022). At this point, the AFAA campaign contends it already has over 500,000 signatures on petitions and will continue to gather them through the deadline.

Arizona is one of the seven critical swing states that will determine the presidential election’s outcome. Democrats will use this initiative to increase their coalition turnout both through early voting and on election day.


But, the bottom line — the poll shows that in Arizona, Biden’s position on abortion is a political vulnerability compared to Trump’s.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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Én kommentar

11%. Difference doesn't seem like much to me.

Trump favors Abortion, just at a different time.

Immoral politicians are not to be supported by genuine Catholics.

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