Buttigieg Leads in MI Senate Poll

From bad to worse in the Wolverine State?

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A new Michigan Democratic primary poll suggests that former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the man to beat for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D).

The Blueprint Polling firm tested a likely Michigan Democratic voting segment and sees Mr. Buttigieg topping Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16% in a hypothetical 2026 primary poll. US Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak Township) all trail "in low single digits," according to the Blueprint analysis.

Senator McMorrow is the only individual who has formally announced for the Senate from either party, but the aforementioned have all confirmed they are considering entering the race. Lieutenant Gov. Garlin Gilcrest (D) was included in this poll, but last week announced that he will not run for the Senate. He is projected as virtually certain to enter the open Governor's contest.

Mr. Buttigieg has the highest name identification and favorability index of the tested potential contenders within this Democratic sampling universe. He posts 88% name recognition with a 77:12 favorable to unfavorable split.  Attorney General Nessel is close behind with an 82% name recognition score and a similar 72:10 positive index. A total of 56% questioned could identify Lt. Gov. Gilcrest, and 45% responded with a favorable impression. The remaining potential candidates all had low statewide name ID.

Mr. Buttigieg does particularly well with white Democrats (47-16% over Nessel), the highly educated (47-15% versus Nessel), liberals (47-18% against Nessel), and non-union workers (44-14% opposite Nessel). The former Transportation Secretary fared poorly with blacks, however, trailing both Nessel and Gilcrest (22-19-16%). 

Senator McMorrow and the two Representatives, should either or both enter the statewide race, would have a long way to go in becoming competitive for the nomination. Tested against AG Nessel, Rep. Stevens would even lose her own 11th Congressional District by 15 percentage points, while Rep. Scholten would lead Ms. Nessel 28-21% in her 3rd CD, but trails badly elsewhere. Senator McMorrow lags seven points behind AG Nessel among those who know and have an opinion of both women.

According to the Blueprint analysis scenarios, Mr. Buttigieg would be in an enviable position for the Democratic Party nomination should he become a Senate candidate. The pollsters conclude, "Pete Buttigieg is the overwhelming front-runner. He struggles with Black voters and nearly a third of the electorate remains undecided, but his strength with educated voters and white liberals makes him the odds-on favorite to win the nomination."

The Blueprint pollsters did not test any of the Democratic candidates against prospective Republican candidates such as former Congressman Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state's other Senate seat in the 2024 election. 

With Buttigieg faring poorly with black voters and considering that now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) is more popular than the former Transportation Secretary with the general electorate, it appears Mr. Rogers would be in strong position should he mount another attempt in the coming midterm election. 

Previously, Republicans as a whole tended to fare better in midterm elections when compared to their presidential year performance, but considering the changing dynamics within the Michigan and national electorates, such may no longer be the case. It does appear that the country is entering a realignment phase, but it will take at least two more elections to see if such change becomes a trend or is merely an anomaly found only in 2024.

Irrespective of who becomes the eventual Michigan US Senate nominees, the open Wolverine State race will be one of the top targets for both national parties.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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