DNC’s Looming Decisions

Party leaders face controversial rule-making hurdles before presidential contenders step forward to campaign in early states

If you value information like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.

Though the 2028 presidential election is years away, the Democratic National Committee leadership has looming structural decisions to make well in advance of the first nomination votes being cast.

Prospective national candidates are already beginning to make positioning moves. For example, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is attempting to move closer to the political center with his comments this week regarding the homeless and his new podcast that features guests and topics not always aligned with the ideological left.  

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), conducting a series of public events with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is moving even further left in an attempt to capture the Sanders’ coalition.

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is bypassing a Michigan US Senate campaign to prepare for another presidential run and already visiting Iowa, while Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) is conducting a nationwide anti-Trump tour. 

All of these individual strategic moves are illustrative regarding how each person attempts to best position him or herself toward grabbing an early advantage in the forthcoming intraparty brawl for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Before the campaigns even get underway, however, the national party leaders face controversial rule-making decisions well in advance of any contender stepping forward to campaign in the early states.

The first such task is to determine just where are the early states. You will remember that the Democrats changed the political calendar before the 2024 election when they dropped Iowa and New Hampshire from the top two slots and chose to begin in South Carolina. 

The 2024 schedule does not mean the party leaders have to adhere to the same progression in 2028, and as such the individual candidates will want their say in deciding not only the geographic order, but potentially other structural rules that the DNC Rules Committee could recommend be changed.

Since the early states have proven crucial in developing momentum for eventual party nominees, all 57 voting Democratic Party entities (states, territories, and the group of those Democrats living abroad) are likely to soon begin jockeying for position. Without a Democratic President in the White House, it falls upon the DNC to take the lead in setting the ground rules for the 2028 party nomination structure.

With big state Governors such as Mr. Newsom, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro likely to become presidential candidates, we can see a coalition forming to recommend that the mid-Atlantic states secure early positioning. 

The southern contingent, led by Gov. Andy Beshear (KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (NC), will want their region placed early on the calendar, while some of the lesser known contenders should advocate for smaller states going first since they are more responsive to grassroots campaign tactics that unfamiliar contenders need to give them a fighting chance.

Geographic order changes will not be the only rule discussed.  We can expect the DNC to adopt a formalized procedure in the event of replacing a presidential candidate with pledged delegates who exit prior to the national convention. When President Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, there was no set procedure to replace him. Thus, the committee members had to adopt a plan on the fly that included virtual voting and other procedures, which caused some controversy among certain DNC members.

Since the Rules Committee must recommend an early state schedule to the full DNC voting membership and may look at adopting an official presidential candidate replacement procedure, they could also consider changing the delegate apportionment formula.

With so many candidates likely to run, a proposal from the big state DNC members to increase their delegate share could certainly come before the rules panel. Also, some of the candidates will likely advocate restoring the Super Delegates’ (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) ability to vote on the first ballot. 

The 2028 presidential campaign will unofficially begin after the 2026 midterm elections, but the party leadership’s first significant hurdles will come in the relative near future. 

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.

Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty