Hochul Challenged

The plot thickens in the Empire State

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Claiming there is “an absence of bold, decisive, transformational leadership," New York Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado, who Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed to his statewide position in 2022, announced that he will challenge the Governor in next year’s Democratic primary.  

Immediately upon hearing the Delgado announcement, US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) publicly noted that the Lt. Governor’s action underscores her own talking point – that is, Gov. Hochul’s handpicked running mate turning on her is yet another indication that she is a failed state chief executive. Rep. Stefanik is expected to seek the Republican gubernatorial nomination. 

The Delgado announcement may affect New York’s Democratic congressional delegation because US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is also considering entering the party’s gubernatorial primary. 

In fact, the early Delgado announcement may be directed more at Torres than Hochul. Polling consistently shows both the challenger and potential challenger each taking between 10 to 13 percent of the Democratic vote against the Governor, thus splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Therefore, both entering the race would almost assuredly guarantee a Hochul plurality primary win.

Conversely, should Rep. Torres seek re-election, Mr. Delgado’s total support figure against the Governor could conceivably double as a result. Therefore, one credible challenger with a significant support base a full year before the state’s June 23 primary opposite an incumbent who generally posts mediocre job approval ratings has the makings of a serious race.

Additionally, we can now expect both the Governor and Mr. Delgado to soon make a strong pitch to obtain the Working Families Party ballot line. Doing so would be particularly important for Delgado since being the Working Families Party nominee – candidates can appear on more than one ballot line in New York – would guarantee him a spot in the general election. 

Having the WFP line would also be important to Gov. Hochul, since her appearing as that party’s standard bearer would shut out another Democrat or left-of-center candidate from advancing into the general election. With the power of the Governorship in her political toolbox, it would appear that Ms. Hochul is in a stronger position to obtain the minor party endorsement than Mr. Delgado.

Should Rep. Torres decide to enter the race, his likely strategy would be to concentrate on his New York City base, since both Gov. Hochul and Mr. Delgado hail from the Upstate, as well as building within the state’s substantial Jewish community. Rep. Torres has been a staunch and vocal supporter of Israel, thus has the opportunity of developing this coalition into a major support asset. Even with these advantages, Rep. Torres would still likely lag behind in a three-way race.

Rep. Stefanik, or the eventual Republican gubernatorial nominee, would see a best case scenario from the GOP perspective with a close Hochul win from an internally divisive Democratic primary campaign. 

Even a best case Republican scenario, however, is unlikely to yield a statewide victory unless new trends are developed. While President Trump saw a greater improvement in New York than any other state when comparing his 2024 performance with what he recorded in 2020 (up a net 10.6 percentage points), he still lost to Kamala Harris by a substantial 55-43% count. EPA Administrator, former New York Congressman, and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin finished stronger than any Republican candidate since George Pataki was last re-elected in 2002, but still lost to Gov. Hochul, 53-47%. 

Despite poor favorability ratings and a serious intra-party challenge, Gov. Hochul must still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win re-election next year. The campaign, however, does promise to become intriguing and one that will capture considerable national political attention.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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