LePage Returns to Maine (Again)

Challenges Jared Golden in swing district

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Former two-term Maine Governor Paul LePage (R), who left the state for Florida only to return in 2022 to launch an unsuccessful run for his old job before leaving again, is coming back for yet another political run. 

This week, Mr. LePage declared his federal candidacy against US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) for the state’s northern congressional district.

Rep. Golden was first elected in 2018, defeating then-GOP incumbent Bruce Poliquin thanks to the Ranked Choice Voting system used for Maine’s federal offices. Mr. Poliquin won the actual vote with a greater than 2,000 ballot margin, but fell below the majority mark. The resulting Ranked Choice rounds would catapult Mr. Golden to his first congressional victory.

Ranked Choice Voting has helped him in subsequent elections, as well. The Congressman has averaged 51.7% of the vote over his four campaigns, counting the Ranked Choice rounds, thus suggesting this seat is highly competitive. In 2024, Rep. Golden defeated then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with only 50.3% of the vote. 

It had been presumed that Mr. Theriault would return for a re-match, but the entrance of former Gov. LePage may change his plans. State Rep. Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips), who challenged Mr. Theriault for the GOP nomination in 2024 but lost 67-33%, said this week that he, too, is considering running again.

Maine’s 2nd District is comprised of ten of the state’s 16 counties, six of which border Canada, and part of Kennebec County, which houses the capital city of Augusta. Maine is one of two states – Nebraska being the other – that allows its congressional districts to determine its own electoral vote in national elections. Though the Democratic presidential nominees have carried the state in the three Donald Trump election years, the current President won the 2nd district in each of those elections.

Even while President Trump carried ME-2 with a 53-44% spread last November, Rep. Golden managed to hang on, winning re-election by a slight seven-tenths of one percent margin (2,706 votes). In 2020, despite Trump losing the state to Joe Biden 52-44%, his 2nd District victory margin was 52-45%, or a raw number spread of just under 28,000 votes. In 2016, the Hillary Clinton statewide vote split was much closer, defeating Mr. Trump 46-43%. The Trump margin in the 2nd CD was 51-41%, meaning a raw vote margin of 36,360.

Considering these presidential numbers, and former Governor LePage performing well in the 2nd CD during all of his statewide runs, this seat will certainly be in play next year.

At the beginning of the election cycle, speculation surrounded Rep. Golden about a possible run for Governor. He largely ruled out challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R) because he is her former staff member, but he clearly would be a strong general election gubernatorial candidate. 

Securing the statewide Democratic nomination, however, might be a different story. Mr. Golden is one of only two Democrats – Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) being the other – who will vote with the Republicans on certain issues. Thus, his legislative record might prove detrimental in a hyper-partisan Democratic primary that now features two strong liberals, appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and businessman Angus King, III, son of Maine’s junior Independent Senator of the same name. 

So far, however, Rep. Golden has not made any move toward the Governor’s race and in an interview early this year hinted that he might not seek any office in 2026, including running for re-election. 

Looking at the Congressman’s 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure report, however, suggests he is planning to remain in elective politics. Mr. Golden raised over $474,000 since the beginning of the year and held almost $449,000 in his congressional account at the end of March. Both of these numbers are solid for a Maine US House race, which is a strong clue that the Congressman is moving forward with a re-election campaign.

A Golden-LePage 2nd District race will be seriously competitive. Republicans will undoubtedly invest here since offensive opportunities are going to be extremely valuable to the GOP’s chances of holding, and possibly expanding upon, their current slim majority.

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Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty