Political Roundup: April 22, 2024

Presidential

Trump Faring Well in Swing State Polling 

Fox News just went into the field to test the key swing states for the presidential campaign, executing polls in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

To win the Presidency, Donald Trump must convert Georgia and one of the Great Lakes states at a minimum. Should Trump prevail in Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, he would have enough to defeat President Biden, so long as he held all 25 states that previously twice voted for him. 

All the polls were conducted from April 11-16 and housed sampling universes comprised of 1,126 to 1,198 registered voters from the previously mentioned states. 

In these polls, Trump would lead Biden 51-45% in Georgia and 49-46% in Michigan, while fighting to a 48-48% draw in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

But, the ballot tests change when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and the minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire. Under this new configuration, Trump continues to top Biden in Georgia and Michigan, and takes a 44-42-8% lead in Pennsylvania. Biden, however, forges ahead in Wisconsin, 43-41-9%.

Senate

Florida: Sen. Scott’s Lead

A poll issued Thursday bears good news for US Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL).

Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Mainstreet Research find Scott in much stronger shape against presumed Democratic nominee and former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Scott scores a 53-36% advantage. FAU / Mainstreet Research polled 815 likely general election voters between April 15-17, 2024.

Earlier in April, Ipsos Research for USA Today found the senator’s lead at 36-26%, though this poll did not isolate registered voters. An Emerson College poll also conducted in April reported a 45-38% ballot test, likewise in Scott’s favor.

House

Open Seat #50 Bodes Well for GOP

Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-KS-02) yesterday surprisingly announced that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated he would not enter any statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation is surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate. 

The 36-year-old Congressman is the youngest Republican House member. Prior to winning the congressional office in 2020, LaTurner served as Kansas’ State Treasurer, and was twice elected to the state Senate. 

LaTurner’s decision means there are 50 seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. 

A GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the Kansas 2nd Congressional District as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Competitive Race in W-1 

Former Wisconsin Congressman Peter Barca (D) announced that he will challenge House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) later this year. Barca represented the 1st Congressional District for one term (1993-1995) before losing his seat to Republican Mark Neumann.

After his congressional defeat, Barca returned to the state Assembly, the body from which he first came to Congress, winning a seat in 2008. He would serve another ten years before Gov. Tony Evers (D) appointed him Secretary of the Department of Revenue. 

The southern Wisconsin 1st District is competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate only a 49.4 Republican to 48.3 Democrat partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WI-1 as the 21st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. 

Still, Barca will have a difficult time unseating Steil. From the Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports just released for the period ending March 31, Rep. Steil holds over $4 million in his campaign account.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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