New Importance for New Hampshire?

State may adopt Maine, Nebraska method of allocating electoral votes

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Republican lawmakers in New Hampshire are floating a bill that would change the Granite State's electoral vote apportionment formula to one modeled after the systems in Maine and Nebraska.

Instead of a winner-take-all system – which awards all electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the statewide popular vote – the Maine and Nebraska process awards two electoral votes for the statewide victor and one each to the candidate carrying each of the state's congressional districts. Maine has two CDs, and Nebraska three.

During the Trump era, we have seen splits in both states routinely occur. Mr. Trump carried Maine's 2nd Congressional District in all three of his presidential runs, thus capturing one electoral vote from the state's total of four, even though his opponents claimed the statewide tally. In Nebraska during the last two elections, Democratic nominees Joe Biden and Kamala Harris each clinched the state's 2nd CD, thus awarding them one electoral vote of the domain's five.

Much attention has been paid to those two states as a result of the system, with the possibility looming large that, during a close national contest, a wayward congressional district could throw the national election into a tie.

The added attention has certainly brought more advertising dollars and campaign expenditures to both Maine and Nebraska. Without the congressional district apportionment system, little attention would have been paid to Nebraska since it is a reliable Republican state, and a great deal less would have been spent in Maine because the state has a consistent Democratic voting history. 

New Hampshire is different. Already regarded as a state in play during the most recent presidential elections, going to the congressional district apportionment system would likely enhance its importance.

Since the turn of the century, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic nominee in six of the seven presidential contests, but the average spread between the two major party candidates in the respective years has been only 4.4 percentage points. In Trump's three elections, he lost New Hampshire by an average of 3.4 percent. 

In the particular elections from 2008 through 2020, the Democratic winner carried both of New Hampshire's congressional districts with the exception of 2016 when Mr. Trump topped Hillary Clinton in the state's eastern 1st CD. Therefore, in most of the 21st Century elections, the apportionment system would not have changed the national electoral vote matrix. The margins in each of the districts, however, have been close.

The 2024 presidential election totals for New Hampshire's districts have not yet been published, but it is likely that Ms. Harris carried both CDs. She defeated Mr. Trump by a 50.7 – 47.9% statewide margin, and while the spread is close it is likely enough to see her prevail in both the 1st and 2nd CDs. Further evidence of such is revealed through the Democratic congressional candidates carrying both districts.

Republicans have large majorities in both New Hampshire legislative chambers, 221-177-1; with one vacancy in the House and 16-8 in the state Senate. Senator Bill Gannon (R-Sandown) is sponsoring the electoral vote apportionment bill. As chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, the bill has a strong chance of moving out of his committee to the floor with a positive recommendation. Considering the Republicans' strong majorities in both houses and with leadership support, the bill has a good chance of becoming law.

Should the proposal become law, it would take effect in the 2028 presidential election. Since the recent presidential elections have all been close, New Hampshire changing to a congressional district apportionment system could well have an interesting impact upon many future national campaigns.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

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