New Jersey Gov Primary Today

The Race to Replace Phil Murphy Heats Up

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Garden State voters are going to the polls today to select nominees to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and, if the surveys and prognosticators are correct, US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli will win the respective Democratic and Republican primaries this evening.

The most recent published survey isn’t very recent, however. Emerson College released the latest public poll, but that was in early May. Their study (5/11-13; 716 NJ likely primary voters; 386 likely Democratic primary voters; 330 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Rep. Sherrill and Mr. Ciattarelli developing a strong respective advantage.

For the Democrats, Rep. Sherrill held a 28-11-11-11-10-5% lead over US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Montclair Mayor and New Jersey teachers’ union president Sean Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, respectively.  

A total of 20 polls from 11 different survey research firms of the Democratic gubernatorial campaign were released from March of 2024 through mid-May of 2025, and Rep. Sherrill led in all. 

County Democratic Party endorsements, which have historically carried weight with the New Jersey partisan electorate, though a 2024 court decision no longer allows the party leadership to bury the names of non-endorsed candidates on different ballot pages from those who are endorsed, were split geographically. 

Rep. Sherrill won ten northern New Jersey county party endorsements, and Rep. Gottheimer claimed two, while the Somerset County Democratic Party co-endorsed all the major candidates. In the southern sector, former state Senate President Sweeney swept the party endorsements, but it does not appear doing so will vault him into the top tier. The Ocean and Atlantic county party organizations made no endorsements.

Democratic fundraising is roughly equivalent through the end of May for all candidates with the exception of Mr. Spiller. Reps. Sherrill and Gottheimer, along with Mayor Fulop had each pulled in more than $9 million for their nomination efforts. Former Senator Sweeney was close behind with more than $8 million in campaign receipts, and Mayor Baraka recorded $6.4 million in dollars raised. 

On the Republican side, Mr. Ciattarelli held an 44-18-8% advantage over radio talk show host Bill Spadea and state Senator Jon Bramnick (D-Plainfield) according to the May 11-13 Emerson College poll. Seven GOP primary polls were published since June of 2024, and Mr. Ciattarelli led in all. He posted majority support in two of the studies and reached or exceeded the 42% support factor in all but one. President Trump endorsed Mr. Ciattarelli’s candidacy in early May.

Like the leading Democrats, Mr. Ciattarelli has also raised over $9 million for his effort.  He far outdistances his Republican opponents since Sen. Bramnick and Mr. Spadea have brought in just under $5 million apiece.

Assuming Sherrill and Ciattarelli advance into the general election tonight, the Congresswoman will be favored, but the state appears to be getting more competitive.  While Kamala Harris carried New Jersey over President Trump, the Garden State delivered the Republican his second best improvement numbers in the country, behind only New York. Mr. Trump increased his New Jersey percentage a net ten points when comparing his 2024 total with the 2020 result.

In 2021, Mr. Ciattarelli lost to Gov. Murphy in a 51-48% count. He obviously hopes to improve upon that total later this year. Considering the Republican Party candidates’ largely below-average performances recorded in off-year 2025 elections to this point, the Democrats should have a boost and will be favored to hold the NJ Governor’s office irrespective of both Messrs. Ciattarelli and Trump’s more competitive Garden State tallies.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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