Ossoff Polling Closes

Stay tuned for Peach State political fireworks

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A recently released Cygnal survey research firm poll finds the Republican Senate candidate pool pulling closer to Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), but the two best available performers aren’t yet in the race.

The Cygnal poll (5/15-17; 800 GA likely voters; live interview & text) projects that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) runs slightly ahead of Sen. Ossoff, 44.3 to 44.1%. US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) appears next strongest, trailing the incumbent, 45.7 – 44.3%. Neither, however, are announced Senate candidates. 

Secretary Raffensperger, who was the focal point of the 2020 vote fraud claim controversy in the presidential race, could seek re-election. He has also publicly contemplated entering the open Governor’s race, but has been relatively silent about launching a bid against Sen. Ossoff.

Rep. Collins has been listed as a potential Senate candidate since the beginning of the prognostication discussion, and he is still considered as a possible statewide contender.

Another potential Republican candidate, but one unlikely to run, is former US Senator and current Small Business Administration Director Kelly Loeffler. She also does well in the Cygnal poll, trailing Ossoff just 46.3 – 42.8%.

The announced candidates fall into the same close polling realm. Sen. Ossoff would lead US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), 46.0 – 42.1%, while state Agriculture Commissioner John King falls behind the Senator by a closer 44.7 – 42.1%.

This set of polls is much different from what we have previously seen in the early going.  Before, Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who recently announced he would not run for Senate, polled slightly ahead of Ossoff, but the others were substantially behind. Therefore, the new Cygnal poll, from a frequent Georgia pollster, marks a significant improvement for the lesser known GOP candidates and potential contenders.

For example, the April Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll (4/15-24; 1,000 GA registered voters) found Sen. Ossoff leading Commissioner King, 51-38%. A January WPA Intelligence survey (1/14-15; 500 GA likely voters) posted Ossoff leading King, 47-31% and 45-32% over Rep. Carter. 

The Tyson Group also polled the Georgia Senate race in January (1/30-31; 600 GA likely voters) and reported Gov. Kemp leading Sen. Ossoff, 49-42%. They also tested Rep. Carter and found Ossoff rebounding to lead 47-32%. The Trafalgar Group, in their April poll (4/24-27; 1,426 GA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques), saw Sen. Ossoff running ahead of Rep. Collins by a closer 47.5 – 42.8% margin.

The Trafalgar Group also released Republican primary numbers from last month’s results. At the time, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome), who later announced that she would not enter the Senate race, led the group with 42.7% of the likely Republican primary voters. Mr. Raffensperger was second with 22.0%, followed by Rep. Collins’ 15.0% support. Rep. Carter drew 13.1%, potential candidate US Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) posted 5.3%, and Commissioner King trailed with only 2.0% preference.

While certain states, adjacent North Carolina being a prime example, see routine polling inaccuracies that usually involve an under-poll for Republican candidates, the 2024 Georgia data produced sound projections. 

According to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, the last six Georgia presidential polls all saw the race coming down to a one point margin. The final Atlas Intel (11/3-4) survey predicted the correct margin, a two-point victory for President Trump. This most recent polling track record is a clear improvement for Georgia polling methodologies because the group of participating pollsters largely missed the 2020 Georgia presidential and 2022 Senate races.

The Republican nomination field is expected to be large, meaning the May 19 GOP Senate primary will likely advance to a late June runoff between the eventual top two finishers. Once a Republican nominee is chosen (Sen. Ossoff is expected to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination) the Peach State political fireworks will then consume the remaining five months of the ’26 election cycle.

The Georgia race promises to be one of the most hotly contested battleground Senate campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. It is clearly the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat, so the party will be all-in here, regardless of which Republican will ultimately challenge Sen. Ossoff.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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