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Writer's pictureJim Ellis

Outstanding Senate Races – November 7, 2024

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While the Republicans have secured at least 52 seats in the new Senate resulting from their candidates' partisan conversion victories in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, three more races remain uncalled. Those are found in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.


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Arizona: Gallego vs. Lake


For most of the general election campaign cycle, polling of the Grand Canyon State electorate consistently projected Arizona US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) running well ahead of former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. However, the race closed at the end. 


The current totals – not final, as approximately 1.04 million votes remain to be counted – find Rep. Gallego leading Ms. Lake, 50.0% to 47.9%, which translates to a vote margin of 52,581 votes according to the CNN elections page.


In order to win the race, Ms. Lake would have to capture approximately 545,000 of the remaining votes, which would mean a support factor of approximately 53%, or an increase of about five percentage points from her current tally.


In the current count, Rep. Gallego leads in only five of the state's 15 counties, but commands 51.6% support in dominant Maricopa County, which contains almost 62% of the state's population.


As he has been throughout the election cycle, Rep. Gallego is favored to claim the seat and succeed Independent Kyrsten Sinema as one of Arizona's two Senators. This race, however, is closer than originally predicted and verifies the late polling data that detected a surge in Ms. Lake's favor.


Nevada: Brown vs. Rosen


In the Silver State, with approximately 93% of the vote counted, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) currently leads Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) by 12,699 votes statewide in a race that has yet to be called.


In dominant Clark County, which houses approximately 70% of the state's population, approximately five percent of the votes remain to be counted. 


At this point, Sen. Rosen has 50.6% of the Clark County vote as compared to 43.8% for Mr. Brown. For a Republican to win a Nevada statewide race, however, he or she needs approximately 44% of the Clark County vote, so Mr. Brown is within victory range. 


This race remains very much alive for either candidate.


Pennsylvania: McCormick vs. Casey


The third and final outstanding Senate race lies in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.  Here, challenger David McCormick (R) leads veteran Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by 30,991 votes from approximately 6.81 million ballots cast. The CNN election results page suggests that 97% of the total vote has been counted, meaning just over 62,000 votes remain if the total vote estimate is correct.


If so, this would mean that Sen. Casey would have to attract a full percentage point more than his current total from the remaining vote number, understanding that three independent and minor party candidates are attracting a combined 2.6 percent.


Takeaways


Representative Gallego is in the prime position to capture the Arizona seat. Mr. Brown, though trailing at the moment, may still be able to win in Nevada. Mr. McCormick is mathematically in a slightly better position to win his Pennsylvania race simply because his current lead means he needs less of the outstanding vote than his opponent; however, though the mathematics suggest that McCormick has the easier path to victory, such may not be the case in the real world of politics.


With the Republicans sitting at 52 seats in the new Senate, winning either Nevada or Pennsylvania would bring them to 53, while taking both would create a 54R-46D chamber split. This would put them in prime legislative position for the coming congressional session.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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