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Political Roundup: May 1, 2024

Updated: May 17


Polling Margin of Error:  Different PA and WI Ballot Tests  

All polls contain a margin of error, and two sets of surveys in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Senate races demonstrate the importance of the spread.

Both CBS News and Emerson College were in the field in both states at relatively the same point in time, but they arrived at significantly different results for the same races.

In an April 19-25 survey conducted by the YouGov polling firm, CBS News found Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) 46-42%.

From April 25-29, Emerson College also studied the Keystone State Senate race, but its data showed Casey with a much larger advantage — 46-39%.

Using a margin of error figure of 3 percentage points, we see that these two polls do fall within the pre-stated specter. Yet, the difference between a four- and seven-point edge on the ballot test is substantial.

We see a similar situation in the latest Wisconsin polling. During the same polling periods, again for both pollsters, we see results that are similarly divergent, yet within the polling margin of error.

An April 19-25 CBS/YouGov survey finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading businessman Eric Hovde (R) 48-41%, while Emerson's April 25-29 poll again finds a closer race, detecting a Baldwin edge of only 46-43%. Again, a significant difference, yet within the polling margin of error spread.


FL-1:  McCarthy Ally to Challenge Rep. Gaetz

At last Friday's candidate filing deadline, controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) drew a Republican primary challenger who could enjoy outside support. Retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock (R) filed his candidacy just before time expired.

Reports suggest that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will back Dimmock, enlisting significant financial support from loyal allies who want to even the score for his political demise. Gaetz was the leader of the McCarthy ouster movement.

It remains to be seen how well Dimmock could perform in the August 20 Republican primary. In 2022, Gaetz easily turned back a well-funded Republican primary challenge from businessman Mark Lombardo, who spent just under $800,000 for his campaign. The congressman won renomination over Lombardo with a landslide 70-24% victory margin.

Louisiana:  Court Strikes Down New Congressional Map  

Louisiana plaintiffs challenging the state's new congressional map, which created a second majority-minority district stretching from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, received a favorable ruling yesterday from the three-judge federal panel hearing the lawsuit.

The decision means the new congressional map is nullified. The judicial panel will now consider replacement maps. The plaintiffs argued the district was drawn only on racial criteria, in violation of the US Constitution.

The ruling is likely to help Republicans, and particularly Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), whose GOP favorable 6th District was reconfigured as a majority-minority seat designed to elect an African-American Democrat. The Secretary of State informed the court that the 2024 districts must be in place by May 15 to allow the election office to properly administer the election. Therefore, a quick remedy decision will soon follow.

NY-26:  Tim Kennedy (D) Wins Special Election

As expected, state Senator Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) easily scored a special election victory last night to succeed resigned Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in New York's 26th Congressional District. Kennedy received 75% of the vote in the heavily Democratic seat that Republicans basically conceded. The latter party's candidate, West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson, reported raising only $35,000 in the pre-election Federal Election Commission disclosure report.

The Kennedy victory means the House party division will move to 217R – 213D, with five vacancies (4R – 1D). The 26th District encompasses the Buffalo metropolitan area, including parts of Erie and Niagara Counties.


Delaware:  Gov. Carney to Run for Mayor  

Two-term Delaware Gov. John Carney (D), who under the state's election law is ineligible from seeking a third term, instead announced that he will run for mayor of Wilmington.

Should Carney win the open municipal post — he'll be favored to top City Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter (D) — he would become at least the third governor to later become a mayor.

Carney would join former Maryland Gov. Ted McKeldin (R), who was elected the state's chief executive in the 1950s before returning as mayor of Baltimore in the 1960s. Likewise, Jerry Brown was elected mayor of Oakland after his first stint as governor of California; afterward, he returned to the governorship and eventually served 16 non-consecutive years as the state's chief executive.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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Simply don't care about the murderous Fraudulent/Cheat Elections any longer which have already killed Democracy. All the next cycle does is make it PERMANENT. Since the survey's are ALL owned by the U.N.'s Unparty Nazi Establishment cooking the outcomes to support both lying narratives and murderous Elections...Don't really give a hoot about them, either.

Reading about survey's or Elections; both ran and controlled by ENEMIES OF THE U.S. CONSTITUTION in the current conditions being the EXACT SAME as for 2020/22 is a total waste of time.

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