If you appreciate articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.
SENATE
Minnesota: Sen. Klobuchar Cruising
Minnesota Senator and former 2020 presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar (D) has never been considered a potential political target in this year's Senate race, and a new Survey USA poll (626 MN likely voters; online) confirms that she is safe for re-election.
According to the ballot test results, Sen. Klobuchar holds a 55-33% lead over former NBA basketball player Royce White (R), and a similar 54-33% advantage when paired against banker and retired Navy officer Joe Fraser (R).
Senator Klobuchar will have an official general election opponent when the Republicans nominate their candidate on August 13.
HOUSE
OH-9: Rep. Kaptur +10
A just-released Noble Predictive Insights survey (435 OH-9 likely voters; live interview and text) finds 21-term US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) posting a ten-point, 47-37%, advantage over state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6.
In contrast, former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are tied at 46-46% within the 9th CD. The Republicans and their allies are expected to bring in outside dollars to compete with Rep. Kaptur, which is needed since she has almost a 5:1 advantage in fundraising.
The race will end in a competitive finish, but Rep. Kaptur's longstanding incumbency continues to provide her an advantage in a district that should be trending Republican.
STATES
Tennessee: Primary Today
Voters in the Volunteer State will cast their ballots today in the nation's only Thursday primary. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is running for a second term and faces only minor opposition in her primary.
Four Democrats are vying for their party nomination, and it appears that state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville) is the favorite to win tonight. Johnson is one of the House members who participated in a state capitol rally for gun control that resulted in two other members being expelled from the legislature. Regardless of the result tonight, Sen. Blackburn is a huge favorite for re-election in November.
The most competitive race on the ballot comes in the Nashville-anchored 5th Congressional District where Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston (R) is challenging freshman US Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia). The Congressman has been accused of fabricating his biography – he later made changes to it – and of failure to pay property tax when he was a local mayor. Johnston enjoys strong outside backing and has been running ads that accuse Ogles of being an ineffective Congressman.
Spending on the campaign appears even on both sides, so the final tally could revolve around the incumbent's advantage. Clearly, the 5th District contest will be the race that draws the most attention tonight.
LOCALITIES
New York City: 2025 Mayor's Race Already Hot
While the New York City Mayor's primary election is not until next June, the campaign to oust Mayor Eric Adams (D) is already well underway.
Earlier this week, NYC Comptroller Brad Lander announced that he will join the Democratic primary hoping to deny the incumbent renomination. Two others, former NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer (D) and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie (D-Brooklyn) have formed mayoral exploratory committees.
The bigger-name candidate, however, is former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who is expected to eventually join the race and begin a political comeback after he was forced to resign his position in 2021 amid a sexual harassment scandal. Should Cuomo enter the race, the political battle will become a free-for-all and a media sideshow.
To add an additional complication, New York City employs the Ranked Choice Voting system for its primary elections, which could result in the first-place finisher not winning the party nomination.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Comments