If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.
PRESIDENT
Polling: Swing-State Seesaw
The presidential race continues to behave like a seesaw with regard to cumulative polling data.
Released Aug. 10, the most recent New York Times/Siena College polling series finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by identical 50-46% counts in the critical Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Yet, the Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage (IA) released their cumulative data in the same states on August 9. Trafalgar found Trump leading 46-44% in Pennsylvania, while IA sees Trump with a 49-48% edge in Wisconsin. The IA Michigan result, Harris leading 49-47%, confirmed the NYT/Siena Wolverine State conclusion.
With the race leaders varying literally by the day, at this point the contest appears to be a dead heat.
PRIMARY RESULTS
Hawaii: Electorate Voted Saturday
There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday's Aloha State primary. Senator Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, was renominated with a landslide 90.5% of the Democratic primary vote.
She will now face former state Representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52% of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25%. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono.
The only interesting Hawaii primary political news is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.
GOVERNOR
Delaware: New Polling Leader
According to a recent Concord Public Opinion Partners survey the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long's alleged campaign finance violations in not disclosing money paid to her husband has hurt her bid for Governor. The survey was conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy organization and consisted of 453 Delaware registered voters.
The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary, with a 30-23% spread as the two battle to win the September 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November.
Gov. John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Instead, he is running for Mayor of Wilmington, the small state's largest city.
North Carolina: AG Stein (D) Opening Consistent Lead
The Cygnal polling organization has released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and its data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Governor Roy Cooper (D).
The poll (Aug. 4-5; 600 NC likely general election voters) finds AG Stein topping Robinson, 43-38%, even though all other Republicans are leading.
In the presidential race, Trump runs ahead of Harris, 47-44%. In the open Attorney's General contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38% advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37% edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Comments