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PRIMARIES
Voting Today: Three More Late Primaries
Voters in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming are casting their nomination ballots today.
The at-large jungle congressional primary in Alaska is extremely competitive. The outcome will be hugely impactful and could help decide control of the House of Representatives at a crucial time with a tight presidential election.
Democrats in Florida are choosing an opponent for Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R), as well as candidates for several contested House primaries.
Meanwhile, Wyoming should expect a quiet primary night for Sen. John Barrasso (R) and Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne).
SENATE
New Jersey: Menendez Drops Campaign
Senator Bob Menendez (D), who is resigning from the Senate today due to his conviction on federal bribery charges, is also ending his Independent candidacy for re-election.
Though he had little chance of winning the November election from the Independent ballot line, Menendez was able to pay legal fees because he was an official candidate. Beginning tomorrow, he will no longer be a Senator or Senate candidate.
Representative Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is favored to win the general election and succeed Menendez in the Senate.
During the interim, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is appointing his former chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the remaining balance of the current term.
HOUSE
NH-2: Polling Shows Clear Favorite
St. Anselm’s College’s latest statewide poll found ex-Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leading Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern by a full ten-point margin (41-31%) in the open battle to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton).
Though the general election could be close, the new Democratic nominee will at least have the initial advantage. The late New Hampshire primary is scheduled for Sept. 10.
CA-45: Rep. Steel in Deadlocked Poll
One of the keys to determining the next US House majority is how well the Republicans do in retaining the four Democratic seats their members hold in the Golden State. One of those is the Orange County district of two-term Rep. Michelle Steel.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates California's 45th district as D+5, but Rep. Steel was able to secure a 52-48% post-redistricting re-election victory in 2022.
While initially favored to claim a third term, a just-released late July survey (Normington Petts) finds Rep. Steel and Democrat Derek Tran tied at 47% apiece.
In a heavily-Asian district (41.4% of the Voting Age Population), Tran has a strong advantage within the large Vietnamese population (62-30%) over the Korean-born Republican incumbent.
We can expect another close finish in a highly-competitive Orange County congressional district.
PA-10: Moving Into Toss-Up Realm
Another battleground US House contest is unfolding in the Harrisburg-York area of Pennsylvania. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, a new poll suggests the race between six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson is already a toss-up.
An Upswing Research survey (polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) found the challenger leading Rep. Perry with a slight margin (48-47%).
Typically, this district has polled better for Democrats than it has voted, but there is little doubt that the race in this central Pennsylvania district will be one to watch.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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