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PRIMARY RESULTS
Alaska: Peltola, Begich Finish 1, 2
As expected, at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished first in the top four Alaska jungle primary, but the unanswered question was whether businessman Nick Begich, III or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom – the choice of the Republican establishment and former President Donald Trump – would become her prime competitor.
While Rep. Peltola is knocking on the door of the majority support threshold as ballots continue to be counted, it was Begich who secured second place while Dahlstrom finished almost seven points behind him and 30 points behind the Congresswoman.
The next few days of jockeying will be interesting. The Republicans will have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola if they unite behind one candidate, and it appears their only choice will be Begich.
If they remain divided among two major GOP contenders, then the outcome will be the same as we've seen before – that is, Rep. Peltola will continue representing the most Republican congressional district in the country that elects a Democrat to the House.
Florida: Scott Romps; No Major Upsets
The Florida primary unfolded as expected. Senator Rick Scott (R) and former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) were easy winners in their respective primaries. Scott posted over 84% in the Republican primary, while Mucarsel-Powell captured just over two-thirds of the Democratic vote.
Senator Scott and Mucarsel-Powell will now advance to the general election where the incumbent is favored in a state where the Republican registered voter factor exceeds its Democratic counterparts by more than 1 million individuals.
In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) was again an easy winner, exceeding 72% of the vote over Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock, who moved into the district to challenge the Congressman. Gaetz will now advance into the general election where he becomes a prohibitive favorite in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.
In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, as expected, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos topped 72% of the vote to claim the Republican nomination. He will replace retiring Congressman Bill Posey (R-Rockledge), who announced that he would not seek re-election just before the candidate filing deadline expired. Haridopolos now becomes a sure winner in the general election.
In a St. Petersburg-anchored congressional district that can become competitive, marketing consultant Whitney Fox, as expected, easily won the Democratic primary and advances into the general election to oppose freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg). The Congresswoman is favored, but the district electorate is relatively close. The Republican general election vote is likely to land in the low to mid-50s.
Representative Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), who former President Trump targeted for defeat before he decided to endorse her when no major GOP competition emerged, also topped 72% in last night's GOP primary. Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will now become Rep. Lee's November opponent. Since Kemp has underperformed on the fundraising circuit, Rep. Lee is viewed as a clear November favorite in central Florida's most competitive seat.
Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) faced a credible Republican primary opponent, but the Congressman easily prevailed with 61% voter preference. The primary should prove to be Rep. Buchanan's most formidable challenge in a 16th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+13.
In South Florida, we saw a minor upset as Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller defeated former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey with a 54% vote total. She now will face two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) in what appears to be a dead-even district on paper demographically, but with an electorate that tends to vote more conservatively.
Wyoming: Barrasso, Hageman Renominated
As predicted, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) and at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) were easily renominated with landslide Republican primary victories last night. Sen. Barrasso's 68% victory at this writing and Rep. Hageman scoring 81% of the primary vote will send both office holders to the general election in what promises to be Donald Trump's strongest state in the country.
HOUSE
AZ-3: Finally, a Result
In another of the 2024 close primary races in which the counting has dragged on for weeks, former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari yesterday was declared the official winner of the open 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary by a 39-vote margin over former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran.
Ansari had led since the first count on July 30, but what originally appeared to be a substantial lead dwindled in every subsequent count until the leakage finally stopped with 39 votes to spare. The total turnout was a low 38,135 votes.
AZ-3 is a safe Democratic seat – the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it a D+44 – so winning the Democratic primary has virtually clinched the general election for Ansari. She will replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) who is running for the Senate.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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