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PRESIDENT
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Endorses Trump
Speaking in Phoenix today, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., suspended his campaign and formally endorsed former President Donald Trump. Accusing the Democratic Party of working to dismantle democracy, Kennedy said he was backing Trump based on three key issues: freedom of speech / the threat posed by censorship, the catastrophic impact of the war in Ukraine, and what he termed "the war on children" – the poisoning of America's youth by toxic food and overmedication.
Kennedy said he would leave his name on the ballot in both blue and red states, but would remove it from consideration in the ten toss-ups so that he did not act as a spoiler.
Now, the debate begins over the extent to which Kennedy's endorsement of and involvement with Trump will help the former president's effort. It is possible that Kennedy's support for Trump will aid the Republican in the short term, but it could also help the Democrats in the longer term.
One reason that the Independent candidate is getting out of the race is the lawsuits that Democratic parties from key states have filed that would disqualify his ballot status. The Democrats' actions suggest that they want Kennedy out of the race because they clearly believe his presence on the ballot hurts Kamala Harris.
SENATE
Maine: Sen. King's Weak Showing
The University of New Hampshire (UNH) conducted a major statewide survey of the three northern New England states, but their data from the neighboring Maine electorate proved most interesting. While the results found Vice President Kamala Harris posting a big lead over former President Trump, the US Senate ballot test was not so favorable for the state's Independent Senator who caucuses with the Democrats, Angus King.
According to the UNH data totals, Sen. King would lead Republican Demi Kouzounas, Democrat David Costello, and Independent Jason Cherry, 43-33-9-3%, respectively. This is an unimpressive showing for a two-term Senator and former two-term Governor against a trio of candidates who have so far spent just under a cumulative $280,000 on their campaigns. Whether this turns into a race to watch is doubtful, but polling such as this may begin to raise eyebrows.
Pennsylvania: A Tightening Race – or Not
Recent surveys of Pennsylvania's competitive US Senate race are producing seriously-conflicting results. The most recent polls, released yesterday, from Rasmussen Reports, Emerson College and Quinnipiac University show challenger David McCormick (R) closing to within single digits of Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D). Only days earlier, however, both the New York Times / Siena College and Pennsylvania-based Franklin & Marshall College posted Sen. Casey to double-digit leads.
The Rasmussen, Emerson, and Quinnipiac polls were all conducted during the Aug. 8-17 period and interviewed a cumulative 4,050 Pennsylvania voters. All of the results find Sen. Casey leading, but his margin is 3, 4 and 5 points, respectively, among the three pollsters. The NYT/Siena and F&M surveys were conducted during the July 31-Aug. 8 period, and interviewed a combined 1,613 Keystone State registered voters. Senator Casey's margin in the NYT/Siena survey is 14 points and in the F&M study, 12 points.
The progression suggests the race is tightening, since the more recent results are consistently closer than the wider range found during the earlier period.
HOUSE
NE-2: Harris, Bacon Up
The Remington Research Group (RRG) conducted a survey of Nebraska's critical 2nd Congressional District, which voted for Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020. The RRG data finds the district favoring Kamala Harris beyond the margin of error, 50-42%, but flipping toward Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillon/Omaha) by two percentage points, 46-44%, in his rematch with state Senator Tony Vargas (D-Omaha).
This district is of potentially critical importance to the outcome of both the presidential race and the House majority, and should be closely-monitored through the remainder of the election period.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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