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SENATE
Polling Series: Democrats Continue to Lead Tested Races
British pollster Redfield & Wilton conducted a series of US Senate polls in four states for London's Telegraph publication; and while all the contests are close, the Democratic candidate, typically an incumbent, has the advantage in all.
In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads Republican Senate nominee Kari Lake, 42-36%. In neighboring Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is up 41-38% in a race that is again tightening. The New Mexico numbers also show a close race, but one that favors two-term incumbent Martin Heinrich (D). The ballot test split here is 40-34%, with Sen. Heinrich leading former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici (R).
In Pennsylvania, we again see a familiar trend, with Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading retired hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R), but not yet pulling away. The Redfield & Wilton numbers find Sen. Casey leading 45-40%. All of these results are consistent with other recent polling in these various states.
HOUSE
AK-AL: Dem Group Trying to Boost GOP Candidate
Super PAC "Vote Alaska Before Party," which is a front for the Democratic leadership's House Majority PAC, is spending over $1 million to help minor Republican candidate Gerald Heikes qualify for the fourth and final general election slot in Alaska's unique Top Four jungle primary system. A total of 12 candidates are on the Aug. 20 qualifying election ballot.
It appears the Democrats believe pitting at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) against three Republicans in the general election will help her if a plurality general election vote forces the contest to the Ranked Choice Voting rounds. The theory is that votes for Heikes may also propel businessman Nick Begich (R) ahead of Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who the GOP leadership, including former President Donald Trump, endorses.
Begich has said he will not continue into the general election should he finish behind Dahlstrom. Democrats obviously would like to see Begich be a part of the Ranked Choice rounds because they believe his presence will help Rep. Peltola. Thus, the complicated Alaska system is developing its own strategic nuances.
AZ-3: Dem Primary Outcome Still in Doubt
The long ballot verification/vote counting process is once again dragging on in Arizona, and one key race remains suspended in abeyance. The Democratic primary in the state's open 3rd District now sees a vote margin of just 47 votes between former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and ex-state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. The eventual winner here is a lock to win the general election and replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), who is running for the Senate.
In any event, the deadline to report final totals to the Secretary of State from all Grand Canyon State primary elections is Aug. 12, and the certification deadline is Aug. 15. We can expect this 3rd District race to use all of the available time. With such a close outcome, moving to a recount round also appears inevitable.
CA-16: Conflicting Internal Polling Data
The open 16th District election attracted a great deal of political attention in early primary season because two candidates tied for second place, and for a time it appeared that the general election would feature former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) and two general election challengers. A recount, however, made state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) the second-place qualifier by a scant five-vote margin.
This week, Low's campaign released a Tulchin Research internal poll, and not surprisingly the results produced a close snapshot. The ballot test broke 30-29% in favor of Liccardo. At the end of June, the Liccardo campaign released its own internal survey from Lake Research Partners, which projected Liccardo holding a 39-28% advantage.
Representative Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring after serving what will be 32 years in the House. While originally producing a triple Democratic general election, the double Democrat campaign still ensures the party will hold the seat. Which Democrat will succeed Eshoo, however, remains a question mark.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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