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HOUSE
CA-22: A Third Rematch
Former state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) has twice lost to central California Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. In the new Congress, this becomes the most Democratic seat in the country to elect a Republican Representative. In the just-completed 2024 campaign, Rep. Valadao defeated Mr. Salas, 53-47%. In 2022, the Congressman's margin over Salas was 51.5 – 48.5%.
Yesterday, Mr. Salas announced that he is already filing a 2026 congressional campaign committee, suggesting he will return for a third challenge. Of the four California Democratic seats that elected a Republican in the current Congress, the 22nd District is the only one that Republicans maintained. The other GOP members holding Democratic seats – Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) – all lost in the 2024 election.
FL-1: Special Becoming Defined
A total of five announced Republican candidates have already exited the race to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) in the northwestern Florida Panhandle's 1st Congressional District special election. All five then endorsed Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis, who also has the public support of both President-Elect Donald Trump and just re-elected Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R). Therefore, the race looks to be a battle between Mr. Petronis and state Representative and physician Joel Rudman (R-Navarre), along with several minor candidates.
The special GOP primary, scheduled for Jan. 28, will determine Mr. Gaetz's successor in what is Florida's safest Republican US House seat.
ME-2: Recount Ends
With little movement in the state's recount of the close ME-2 congressional race, Republican challenger Austin Theriault has called a halt to the process. Therefore, once again, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) wins in the Ranked Choice Voting round, this time with 50.3% of the vote, or a 2,706-vote margin.
Mr. Golden, who will be serving his fourth term in the House, is viewed as a potential candidate for Governor. He has been quoted as saying he could run statewide, seek re-election, or just retire from elective politics in 2026.
Chances are good that Mr. Theriault will return for another congressional campaign. President-Elect Trump carried Maine's 2nd District with a 53-44% margin, but did not provide Theriault with enough coattails to overcome Rep. Golden's incumbency.
GOVERNOR
Minnesota: Possible Challenge to Gov. Walz
Now that the election is over for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's national run as Kamala Harris' Vice Presidential choice, attention is turning to whether the former national candidate will run for a third gubernatorial term. Walz has not yet disclosed his political plans, but a member of the US House delegation has increased his public attacks on the Governor, suggesting a potential challenge.
Representative Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth), who was just re-elected to a fourth House term with 58% of the vote, has become more aggressive in commenting upon the Governor's policies. This suggests that he may be laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial challenge. Many House members are assessing Governors' races in 2026, so we can add Mr. Stauber to the list of congressional members to watch.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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