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Senate
Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement
There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary. Now another individual is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.
Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a
statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate.
However, while running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.
Regardless of what Cornyn chooses to do, the next election will be quite the heavyweight showdown.
House
FL-1: Special Election Field Set
Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis.
Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, ten others remain.
Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Mr. Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality
nominee advance into the April 1st special general election.
One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern
panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat on April 1.
FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election
Senator Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination. While eleven Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, only one other Republican has done so in the coastal 6th District. That individual is MAGA activist Aaron Baker.
However, President-Elect Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have both publicly endorsed state Sen. Fine .
Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have also filed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.
Redistricting
Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed
According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government.
This measure would create a nine member commission where the Governor, state Attorney General, and the Secretary of State would appoint those serving.
The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the
Governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House.
The chance of this bill passing in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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