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Political Roundup — July 1, 2024


New Jersey: Shock Poll Places Trump in Lead

A new survey projects that former President Donald Trump holds a small 41-40% edge over President Biden in New Jersey, the bluest of states. While Trump has proven to "under-poll" in many places during his two presidential elections, in New Jersey Republicans often "over-poll" in relation to how they perform at the actual ballot box. 

Other states, such as Minnesota and Virginia, are also returning more favorable than expected Republican presidential numbers. While the race may be closer than we would typically see in these places, it still remains highly unlikely that Trump will carry any of these particular states — close polling is not the same as winning. However, the returned data does indicate that Trump is performing uniquely well in places where Republicans typically perform poorly.


Michigan: Trump Leading, Republicans Trailing

In the past few weeks, it has become clear that the Republican Senate candidates as a group are running well behind former President Trump in what have to be considered "must-win" states if they are to control the Senate in January.

Michigan has been the lone exception to the Trump-GOP Senate margin. A new poll again finds that the Wolverine State appears somewhat exempt from the pattern found in other states. The EPIC-MRA survey shows former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) trailing Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) by a small two-point margin, (44-42%), while former President Trump leads President Biden by four points (49-45%). 

While there is a difference between the Presidential and the Senate contests, the swing is not as severe in Michigan as seen elsewhere. Though Michigan is one of the states where voters do not register their party affiliation, pollsters found the number of self-identified Democrats and Republicans tied at 42% apiece. The results likely contain a slight Republican skew, since Democrats typically run slightly ahead of Republicans. 

New Jersey: Rep. Kim's Shrinking Lead

The aforementioned co/efficient New Jersey poll found US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) holding a smaller lead against little-known real estate developer Curtis Bashaw (R) and indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, who is now running on the Independent ballot. However, this survey, along with many others, may be predicting stronger Republican candidate support than actually materializes when votes are cast.


FL-27: Close Poll Released

The Miami-anchored 27th District often votes a bit differently than its partisan numbers might suggest. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat D+1, and statisticians with Dave's Redistricting App calculate a 52.4D – 46.5R partisan lean. This, however, did not stop Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) from ousting a Democratic incumbent in 2022 and winning a 57-43% re-election victory.

A newly-released MDW Communications poll finds Rep. Salazar holding only a slight 44-40% edge over Mike Davey (D), the former Key Biscayne Mayor. The same survey has Donald Trump leading President Biden and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (42-40-6%) — this, in a district that former President Trump carried by the smallest of margins, 49.9 – 49.6%, in 2020. There is a high likelihood that Rep. Salazar will perform better when the votes are counted than her current polling numbers suggest.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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Polls mean nothing this early.

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