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Political Roundup — July 2, 2024

Updated: 3 hours ago


SENATE

 

Montana: Sheehy Up Beyond Margin of Error  

 

After not finding much polling data for this critically important Senate race during the early part of the election cycle, we are now seeing plentiful surveying activity.

 

The latest poll comes from Torchlight Strategies for the Common Sense for America conservative political action committee. The study sees retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) leading three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), 47-41%. Two recent surveys from Public Opinion Strategies and Fabrizio Lee & Associates both cast the Senate race as a dead heat.

 

Consistent with the two other most recent polls, former President Trump is staked to a large lead in the Torchlight survey. The result finds Trump topping Biden, 51-35%.

 

With such a strong Republican lead at the top of the ticket, thus setting the turnout model, it will be difficult for Sen. Tester to overcome what will likely be late Republican election momentum in this state.


New Mexico: Senate Race Tightens

 

As the presidential race grows tighter, Donald Trump's buoyancy is expanding into several unlikely states, including the Land of Enchantment. A new 1892 polling organization survey posts President Biden to only a one-point lead in New Mexico over Trump, and to a significant lead over Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I), 43-42-8%. This, in a state that last went for a Republican presidential nominee in 2004.

 

In the Senate contest, 1892 projects Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, to only a 46-42% advantage over former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late six-term New Mexico US Senator, Pete Domenici (R). This is a long-shot Republican conversion opportunity that is beginning to draw more political interest.


HOUSE


CA-20: Rep. Fong's Opponent Suspends

 

Through various elections and court challenges, newly-elected California US Rep. Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) has already secured his seat for a full term in the next Congress. 

 

Yesterday, the Representative's lone general election opponent, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R) — who finished behind Fong in the regular and special primary elections before losing 61-39% in the May 21 special general election — announced that he is suspending his regular general election campaign and endorsing the new incumbent for re-election.

 

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-20, the seat of former US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), as R+31, making it the safest Republican seat in California.

 

The fact that Fong had placed ahead of Sheriff Boudreaux three times suggested that his winning re-election in November was becoming a virtual certainty.


STATES

 

Nevada: Abortion Initiative Qualifies  

 

Silver State election officials yesterday announced that the initiative to codify the state's abortion law into the Nevada Constitution will be on the general election ballot.


The Secretary of State confirmed that the movement's proponents had gathered the necessary valid petition signatures to put the measure before the voters. Under Nevada election law, initiatives must qualify in consecutive elections. Therefore, even if this abortion-related measure passes in 2024, it will return for a second vote in 2026.

 

National Democratic strategists want abortion propositions on the ballot because they will likely spur turnout among some lower propensity left-of-center voters. The Nevada Democratic strategists will highlight their candidates' support for this particular ballot measure, in order to increase support for President Biden, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and the party's congressional nominees.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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