Political Roundup – July 26, 2024

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PRESIDENT

National Polls: A Virtual Tie 

From July 21-24, eight political pollsters — Activote, YouGov, Ipsos, RMG Research, Big Village, Change Research, Morning Consult, and the New York Times/Siena College — conducted online national ballot tests of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The results were mixed, ranging from Harris +4 to Trump +3.  Of the nine polls (YouGov ran two), Trump was ahead in five results and Harris four.

New Hampshire: First Polls Favor Harris

Prior to President Biden's withdrawal from his 2024 White House run, polling was showing former President Trump pulling just ahead of the incumbent Commander-in-Chief. Now, however, two new surveys see a reversal back toward the Democratic nominee in identical margins.

St. Anselm’s College and the University of New Hampshire, both regular Granite State pollsters, went into the field to test Trump against presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. St. Anselm’s sees Harris leading Mr. Trump, 50-44%. Meanwhile, UNH found a similar six-point spread, at 49-43%.  

Trump did not run well in New Hampshire in 2020, losing to Biden, 53-45%. Therefore, continued polling results such as seen in these two flash polls may suggest the Trump campaign will move to more fertile territory.

HOUSE

TX-18: Potential Candidates Begin Making Moves 

The death of veteran Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) means the Harris County Democratic Party will choose a replacement for her on the November ballot. The Committee members must make their selection before August 26, but the leadership indicates the body will act well before the deadline.

Potential Democratic candidates include former Houston Mayor and ex-state Representative Sylvester Turner, at-large Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former US Senate and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards. The 18th District, fully contained within Harris County, is heavily Democratic. Therefore, whomever the party members choose will assuredly win the seat in November. Thus, this small group of activists will have the power to designate the area’s next member of Congress.

House Democrats: Vulnerable Members Break Ranks 

Six Democrats have broken party ranks to support a Republican resolution criticizing Vice President Harris’ role in securing the border. Not surprisingly, the six are all in competitive House districts, and among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. They are: Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8), Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Jared Golden (D-ME-2), Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL) and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA-3).

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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