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PRESIDENT
Harris Narrowing Field of Potential VP Picks
Bloomberg News is reporting that presumptive presidential nominee Kamala Harris has narrowed her selection for the VP slot on the national Democratic ticket. Her options are reported to be three individuals: Sen. Mark Kelly from Arizona, and Governors Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Tim Walz of Minnesota.
If the report is valid, it means that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Governors JB Pritzker (IL), Andy Beshear (KY) and Roy Cooper (NC) have been eliminated from consideration.
While official projections show Illinois and, to a lesser degree, Minnesota as fairly safe for the Democrats; and Kentucky and North Carolina are projected as leaning heavily toward Republicans – Arizona and Pennsylvania are hotly-contested and critical swing states for both parties.
HOUSE
MN: Rep. Omar's Huge Lead
While the American Israel Public Affairs Committee's (AIPAC) Super PAC affiliate, the United Democracy Project, has spent millions of dollars targeting anti-Israel Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), they have surprisingly spent nothing against one of their most vociferous congressional adversaries, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).
A new poll suggests why there has been so little outside involvement against Rep. Omar or for her top Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don
Samuels.
This was expected to be a competitive challenge at the outset considering Rep. Omar barely edged out Mr. Samuels 50-48% in the Democratic Primary in 2022, but the current data suggests otherwise.
According to Rep. Omar's internal poll from Lake Research Partners, the ballot test projects the Congresswoman holds a 60-33% lead over Mr. Samuels. The fact that the
incumbent's lead is so large dissuades opposition involvement since the die appears
already cast for the August 13 primary election.
Minnesota's 5th District has the highest percentage of immigrant voters of any district in the state along with the largest population of Somali migrants (as is Omar is herself) in the country.
STATES
Arizona: Latest Registration Figures Reveal GOP Jump
Arizona Republicans have consistently out-registered Democrats over the years, and the latest released pre-primary figures find the GOP posting its strongest margin of the last three election cycles.
Arizona also features a large Independent and minor parties' registration category. It is this latter group that is now making the state so competitive.
According to the Secretary of State's report, Republicans now claim 35.4% of Arizona's
registered voters, 6.3 points higher than the Democrats' 29.1% figure. The Independent/Other category has the second highest contingent, at 33.9%.
The Republican-Democrat split is almost three full percentage points higher than in the 2020 election when President Biden scratched out a tight 49.4–49.1% victory over then-President Donald Trump.
The new registration data gives credence to the Real Clear Politics calculated 6.4% average that former President Trump holds over Vice President Harris. The figure is derived from the three cumulative July state surveys.
Arizona continues to be one of the most important swing domains in this election cycle.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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