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Writer's pictureJim Ellis

Political Roundup – July 30, 2024

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HOUSE

 

AL-2: A Surprising New Poll

 

Alabama's new 2nd Congressional District was drawn to elect an African-American Democrat, but a recent Strategy Management poll for the Alabama Families PAC (1,000 AL-2 registered voters) found Republican Caroleen Dobson polling close to race favorite Shomari Figures (D), giving Figures just a 37-34% edge. 

 

Additionally, Figures' fundraising is far below what one would expect. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission second quarter disclosure report, the Democratic nominee had raised only $894,000 as compared to Dobson's $2.2 million, though $1.3 million of that total comes in the form of a candidate loan. 

 

Figures is still favored in a seat that Kamala Harris should easily carry over Donald Trump, but Dobson's effort may be worthy of more attention as the campaign season moves into prime time.


MO-1: Rep. Bush Trailing in Pre-Primary Survey 

 

Apparently, the strong outside group influence aimed at defeating Missouri US Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) — approximately a 9:2 ratio in millions of dollars — is being well spent.

 

A new Mellman Group poll (400 MO-1 likely Democratic primary voters) sees former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell leading Rep. Bush, 48-42%, as the candidates steam toward next week's August 6 primary election. Bell's lead has increased five points since a previous poll was published in June.

 

The chief funder of the anti-Bush efforts is the United Democracy Project, which is the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group also led the charge to defeat another anti-Israel incumbent on June 25, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).


STATES

 

Arizona: Primary Election Today 

 

Several key nomination battles will be decided in Arizona tonight.

 

While Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is unopposed for the open Democratic Senate nomination, former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake looks to be a lock on the Republican side. She is facing Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the GOP primary. 

 

Despite former President Trump's continued strong showing in the Grand Canyon State, along with a significantly increased GOP voter registration advantage, Rep. Gallego is still favored to win the general election and replace Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

 

Democrats see a crowded field vying to oppose vulnerable Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in the politically marginal 1st District. Five candidates have raised more than $1.5 million for their races, so the competition is fierce. Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary tonight, we can expect a toss-up general election campaign.

 

A Republican primary challenge to freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) has failed to generate any steam. Even though Rep. Crane is one of the Republicans behind the ousting of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, it appears he will easily turn back former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith in today's primary and then cruise to re-election in November.

 

Former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and ex-state legislative leader Raquel Teran have squared off in a competitive nomination battle; the winner will succeed Rep. Gallego in the safe Democratic 3rd Congressional District.

 

Representative Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) is poised to defend his seat against former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D), the woman he defeated by little over one percentage point in the 2022 general election. The rematch will again prove to be a difficult campaign for both sides.

 

Perhaps the biggest primary is on the Republican side in open District 8. With Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) leaving the House to run for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, former US Senate nominee Blake Masters and ex-Attorney General nominee Abe Hamedeh have been hammering each other for months in what has become a nasty campaign. State House Speaker Ben Toma (R) has an outside chance to give voters another option between two negative campaigners. 


Former Congressman Trent Franks is also in the race, but not expected to be a viable contender. The latest poll, published in mid-July, found Masters holding a small single-digit lead.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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