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Political Roundup — July 9, 2024

Updated: 5 days ago

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Colorado: National Libertarians Rebuff State 


The Colorado Libertarian Party's plan to replace the Libertarian national nominee, Chase Oliver, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on their state ballot has been thwarted.


The national office has already sent the official nomination papers to the Colorado Secretary of State designating Oliver as the party's nominee. Colorado authorities have declared the form, signed by the national Libertarian Party Secretary, as legal and valid. 


Therefore, it will be Oliver, and not Kennedy, who will appear on the Colorado ballot in November.   



Texas: Cruz's Lead Dwindles in New Poll 


The Manhattan Institute recently conducted a poll of 600 Texas likely general election voters, asking electoral questions and probing the respondents on their positions involving transgender issues. 


While the respondents self-identified as conservative over liberal by 44-21%, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) could only muster a 46-43% lead over Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas). This, while former President Trump was leading President Biden within the same polling universe, 45-36%.


Most of the disparity came from Sen. Cruz's upside-down favorability index, which found a nine-point deficit when comparing those who have a favorable opinion of the two-term Senator to those who do not (42:51%). While Rep. Allred has a positive favorability index, 33:21%, almost half of the respondents (45%) stated they are unfamiliar with the Congressman. 


Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Expands Advantage 


Recent polling by SoCal Research finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) expanding her lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) into double-digits — 50-38%.


The poll, however, seems flawed. First, only 490 registered voters were sampled — a small number for a state with eight congressional districts. Second, among the survey's respondents, 37% self-identified as Republicans, while just 32% aligned themselves with the Democratic Party. A total of 30% consider themselves Independents. 


While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, this split appears too favorable to Republicans, when compared with the electorate's voting history — one that consistently delivers razor thin general election margins.


Surprisingly, such a sample gives Democrat Baldwin her best numbers since mid-May.  For a Republican-favorable sample, this ballot test appears inconsistent. Comparing to the presidential contest, which is consistent with other polling, former President Trump records a one-point, 44-43%, edge over President Biden.



NY-17: Jones Loses Working Families Ballot Line 


After a recount of the New York Working Families Party 17th Congressional District primary, candidate Anthony Frascone has officially won the party nomination and will appear on the November ballot.


Former New York Democratic Congressman Mondaire Jones was expected to win the nomination, but failed to do so. In New York, the minor parties can award their ballot line to a major party candidate. 


The fact that Jones will not have votes coming from the Working Families Party line will likely benefit freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River). Lawler is fighting to win re-election in a Hudson Valley-anchored district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7 and carries a 56.6D–41.3R partisan lean, according to the Dave's Redistricting App statisticians. 


In 2022, Lawler upset then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) with a slight (49.3–48.6%) victory margin.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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