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Political Roundup —June 11, 2024

Updated: Jun 12



Minnesota: Another Close Poll 


The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy’s recent survey of Minnesota general election voters again points to the state moving closer to the competitive realm.


Five other Minnesota polls have been released this year with all finding Biden and former President Trump falling within a 2-4 point ballot test range. Four of the five surveys found Biden holding the small lead.


The new Mason-Dixon poll (800 MN registered voters) finds Biden outpacing Trump by four percentage points, 45-41%.


Minnesota is the Democrats’ most loyal state, supporting the party nominee over the past twelve elections. The last time Minnesota went Republican came in 1972 when the voters backed then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D-SD). 



Florida: Ex-Representative Bows Out 


Former US Rep. Alan Grayson (D) announced yesterday that he is abandoning his campaign for the Democratic US Senate nomination this year.

Grayson developed a reputation as a political gadfly during his congressional years and previous runs for statewide office. He has lost much credibility over the years, and the fact that his 2024 campaign could not elevate suggests that he may be done as a future political candidate for any office. 


The Grayson departure largely paves the way for former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), a one-term member who lost her South Florida seat in 2020, to claim the party nomination.


Incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) is favored for re-election.

Utah: Rep. Curtis Posts Solid Statewide Lead 


A HarrisX poll conducted for the Deseret News service sees Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) leading Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs and former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, 34-16-12%, as the candidates move closer to the state’s June 25 primary election. (The poll tapped 477 UT registered Republican voters, of whom 469 are likely Republican primary voters.)


Staggs, enjoying former President Trump’s endorsement, won the Republican nominating convention in late April, but so far that has not translated into a primary advantage. 


Curtis has held the lead in the three published polls since April 1 and is clearly the man to beat in the June 25 primary.


The November winner will succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R).



Utah: Gov. Cox Reverses Convention Trend 


Gov. Spencer Cox, who lost the April Republican nominating convention to state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding), is rebounding nicely in the primary election according to a new poll. 


As mentioned above, HarrisX conducted a statewide Republican primary survey for the Deseret News and finds Gov. Cox establishing a strong 62-27% lead over Lyman. 


As is often the case, the primary electorate predilections do not always correspond with the Republican Party delegates who attend the state’s nominating convention. But, at this point, Cox appears well on his way to renomination and re-election on June 25 and November 5, respectively.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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