Political Roundup — June 25, 2024

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PRIMARIES

Nomination Election Today: Three States and a Special Election 

Today brings us another series of important primaries.

Voters in Colorado, New York, Utah and South Carolina will decide nominations in either primary elections or a congressional runoff and special election. 

It is likely that Utah Republican voters will effectively elect a new US Senator tonight. 

Three House incumbents in the various primary states are in highly competitive races; the most vulnerable of whom is two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY). Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) also face serious intra-party challenges.

A South Carolina runoff will effectively elect a new House member, and eastern Colorado voters will fill resigned Rep. Ken Buck's (R) vacancy for the remainder of the current term.

SENATE

Florida: Ex-Rep. Mucarsel-Powell Loses AFL-CIO Endorsement  

While former one-term Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell appears to be the favorite for the Democratic US Senate nomination, the official AFL-CIO endorsing convention delegates don't agree.

Over the weekend, they overwhelmingly gave their union endorsements to businessman and Navy veteran Stanley Campbell (D) over Mucarsel-Powell. The winner of the Aug. 20 Democratic primary will challenge Sen. Rick Scott (R) in November.

Many of the delegates believe Mucarsel-Powell is a weak candidate and could not defeat Sen. Scott, especially now that the Florida voter registration report reveals there are 906,000 more Republicans than Democrats in the state. When Scott was last on the ballot (2018), the state was still plurality Democratic. 

Mucarsel-Powell was elected to the House in 2018; but failed to hold the lean Democratic seat in the next election, losing to current US Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami).

HOUSE

VA-5: Rep. Good to Challenge Lynchburg Count 

Reports emanating from central Virginia suggest that Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), still attempting to deny certification of state Sen. John McGuire's 333-vote Republican primary victory, will apparently challenge the vote in the city of Lynchburg.

This is an interesting ploy since Rep. Good carried this domain. Thus, the move is an indication of attempting to buy time in order to attempt to find further ways of overturning the primary result. 

The Congressman must file today since June 25 is the day that localities must report their final election totals to the State Board of Elections.

GOVERNOR

Missouri: Tightening Republican Primary

A new poll finds a change in the open Missouri Governor's race.

Emerson College tested the Show Me State gubernatorial race and projects Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, previously enjoying large primary leads, now topping Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe by only a 23-20% margin, with state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) at 6%. The poll tapped 489 MO registered Republican primary voters.

The Missouri primary is scheduled for August 6. The eventual Republican nominee will have the inside track to winning the November election. Current Gov. Mike Parson (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

STATES

Louisiana: Rep. Graves Possibly to File for Public Service Commission

Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who is left without a winnable district in which to seek re-election this year under the state's new court-ordered congressional map, may file for an open seat on the Louisiana Public Service Commission. Graves confirmed on a Louisiana politics podcast he is considering such a move.

The current Republican incumbent, Dr. Craig Greene, MD, announced last week that he will not seek re-election. The Commission regulates public utilities in Louisiana and also has a role in transportation issues. 

In an open election from a PSC district that includes much of his current congressional district, Rep. Graves would be a formidable candidate to secure the position.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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