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Political Roundup — June 27, 2024


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Maryland: Alsobrooks Develops Significant Lead  

 

A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey finds Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) opening an advantage over ex-Gov. Larry Hogan (R) despite the latter man's favorable ratings.

 

The PPP survey (635 MD voters) sees Alsobrooks leading Hogan, as well as a series of independents and minor party candidates (cumulatively) 45-34-5%. In a head-to-head ballot test, she leads Hogan 48-40%. This, despite a positive Hogan favorability index of 50:33%. 

 

The biggest drag for Hogan is from the top of the Maryland ticket, where President Biden leads former President Trump, 56-30%.  


Nevada: Race Tightens

 

A new survey from a Democratic and Republican polling team finds a closer Senate race than the Emerson College poll conducted during the same period. 


The Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) survey, commissioned for AARP, sees Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) riding a media ad blitz, leading Republican Sam Brown 47-42%. At the same time, former President Donald Trump has a 44-37-10% advantage over President Biden and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I). 


Conversely, Emerson College's study sees Sen. Rosen with a much larger lead over Brown, 50-38%.


While there is a clear advantage for Sen. Rosen in the most recent polling, this race will still be highly competitive come November.


HOUSE

 

MO-1: Rep. Bush in Dead Heat 

 

The Mellman Group, conducting a survey for the Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) PAC, sees challenger Wesley Bell, a former St. Louis County prosecutor, pulling into a one-point, 43-42%, lead over Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), a member of the Socialist Democrat "Squad." 

 

The Mellman analysis finds that Bell has closed the gap against the incumbent since January, seeing a net 17-point swing in his favor. We can expect heavy outside spending coming into the district before the August 6 primary. 

 

The pro-Israel organizations were successful in helping to defeat another Squad member, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), in Tuesday night's Democratic primary. Rep. Bush is another of the most anti-Israel congressional members and a top target of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the DMFI PAC.


WA-3: Dead Heat Poll 

 

A new Public Policy Polling survey conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute sees Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) trailing 2022 general election finalist Joe Kent (R) by a 46-45% dead-heat margin. 

 

Washington's 3rd District, anchored by the city of Vancouver in the far southwestern corner of the state, is the second-most Republican district that a US House Democrat represents. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+11. 

 

In 2022, Perez defeated Kent by less than a percentage point in one of the biggest upsets of that election year. The 2024 rematch, which is likely to occur after the state's August 6 jungle primary, portends to be just as close.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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