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Political Roundup — June 6, 2024


President


Polling: Trump Conviction Not Hurting Poll Standing 

 

In the first released polls since former President Donald Trump’s conviction was announced on Thursday night, a pair of pollsters still project him locked in a virtual national tie with President Biden. YouGov, polling for The Economist publication, and Morning Consult released their frequent tracks.

 

In the YouGov survey (1,566 registered voters) the ballot test finds Trump and Biden tied at 42% apiece. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) records 3% support, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Independent Cornel West each secure 1% preference.

 

The Morning Consult survey (10,404 registered voters) sees Trump holding a slight 44-43% edge in a head-to-head test. 

 

Therefore, with the respondents knowing of the Trump conviction, the voting populace seems unfazed.


SENATE


Nevada: Shock GOP Primary Poll 

 

While Afghan War veteran and official Republican Party backed Senate candidate Sam Brown was expected to breeze through the GOP primary, a new poll suggests otherwise.

 

A Kaplan Strategies study, conducted for the Jeff Gunter (R) campaign (802 NV likely Republican primary voters), sees the former Ambassador to Iceland and physician moving ahead of Brown by a 31-30% count. 

 

In further bad news for Brown, the Tyson Group (601 NV likely general election voters) shows Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading the general election ballot test with a large 47-33% advantage.

 

In both the Gunter and Rosen cases, the candidates had launched large media blitzes prior to the polling, which could explain the swing away from Brown. Gunter may be hitting his peak at the right time, however, as the Nevada primary is fast approaching on June 11.


HOUSE

 

GA-3: Jack Continues to Gain Runoff Support

 

Former Trump White House aide Brian Jack (R) came close to winning the open GA-3 primary on May 21 when he captured 47% of the initial vote against five GOP opponents.

 

Still short of the majority threshold, Jack was forced into a runoff with state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton) who received 25% support. Yesterday, the third and fourth place finishers, former state Sen. Mike Crane and ex-state Rep. Philip Singleton, both endorsed Jack.

 

Coming close to the majority marker and getting former opponents’ support places Jack in a strong position for the upcoming June 18 runoff election. With an R+38 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, winning the GOP runoff is tantamount to claiming the seat.

 

Four-term Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock) is retiring.


MI-8: Junge Takes Lead in Primary & General

 

Michigan’s open 8th Congressional District is one of the key toss-up races in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+1, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.0D – 46.2R partisan lean.

 

President Biden scored a tight 50.3 – 48.2% win here in 2020, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks MI-8 as the 11th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Therefore, it is safe to predict that either eventual major party nominee will have a legitimate chance to win the general election.

 

A poll from the UpOne Insights group (400 MI-8 registered voters of whom 341 are likely GOP primary voters) projects former news anchor and two-time Republican nominee Paul Junge leading both the Republican primary and the general election. 

 

According to the UpOne results, Junge commands a large 53-11% advantage over his three Republican opponents combined, including Board of Education member Nikki Snyder who was disqualified for failing to submit the required number of nominating petition signatures. 

 

For the general election, Junge leads the leading Democratic candidate, state Sen. Kristen McDonald-Rivet (D-Bay City), by a 42-39% clip. The Michigan primary is scheduled for August 6.

 

Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) is retiring after serving what will be six full terms at the end of this Congress.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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