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Political Roundup — June 7, 2024

Updated: Jun 14


President


Vice President: Trump Issues Vetting List 


Former President Donald Trump has requested financial records and documentation from eight individuals for the purpose of vetting a Vice Presidential pick. 


The eight are (in alphabetical order) –


  • North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum

  • Former HUD Secretary Ben Carson

  • Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)

  • US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL)

  • Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

  • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

  • US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)

  • Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH)


It is very likely that the Vice Presidential nominee will be one of these eight individuals. 

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem was reportedly previously vetted, but is now no longer under consideration.


Senate


Utah: Wilson Falling Off the Pace 


According to a report from the Daily Kos Elections site and the Salt Lake City Tribune, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, who is largely self-funding his US Senate campaign, has ended his media buy and has made no reservations for the final weeks before the June 25 primary election. 


The move is basically a concession of his candidacy, suggesting that internal polling agrees with publicly-released data showing him too far behind to have a legitimate chance at winning the open seat Republican nomination.


The leading candidate appears to be US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo). The most recent public poll, an April 30-May 3 survey from Guidant Polling & Strategy, found Curtis leading Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs and Wilson 41-15-9%, which is consistent with earlier released studies.


Mayor Skaggs, who former President Trump endorsed before the state Republican nominating convention, is underperforming on the fundraising front and has little in the way of Super PAC backing. Therefore, as we enter the campaign's closing weeks, it appears that Rep. Curtis is the man to beat. 


The eventual Republican nominee will be the odds-on favorite to replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R). 


House


CA-45: Tulchin Research Sees One Point Race 


The Republican House majority will be greatly affected by the outcome of seven Democratic seats that the GOP holds in California and New York. 


One of those is California's 45th Congressional District, an Asian-plurality jurisdiction fully contained within Orange County and represented by Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). 


A new Tulchin Research survey shows Rep. Steel — who easily placed first in the jungle primary, with 55% of the vote — holding only a 42-41% edge over attorney Derek Tran (D). 


This, despite former President Trump leading President Biden 47-41% in the district, and the generic Republican figure touching 44% as compared to the Democrats' 40%. 


The survey's long 11-day sampling period suggests a high error factor, but it is still surprising to see Rep. Steel, commonly believed to be in the strongest shape of the seven politically-marginal Republican incumbents, to be weaker than Trump and the generic GOP figure. 


PA-10: Three Close Polls 


A new survey of central Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District (the region's third poll within the past month) suggests the major party nominees are headed for a close finish in November. 


The latest survey, from Pennsylvania based Franklin & Marshall College, sees six-term incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) holding only a one-point, 45-44%, edge over former television news anchor Janelle Stelson (D). 


A late May Normington Petts survey projected a similar 51-48% ballot test, while a late April Public Policy Polling study saw a 45-43% division. While the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9, Rep. Perry's Freedom Caucus membership is likely well to the right of the average district voter, particularly in the Harrisburg area. Therefore, this is another of the tight congressional races that will decide the House majority in November.


VA-5: Conflicting Polls 


We are fast approaching the June 18 Republican primary that will decide whether Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), the House Freedom Caucus chairman, can win renomination to a third term despite opposition from former President Donald Trump and ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Rep. Good was one of the leaders in ousting the former Speaker. 

 

A pair of June polls find seriously conflicting results. The most recent survey, from WPA Intelligence, sees Rep. Good's challenger, state Sen. John McGuire, leading the race with a 41-31% advantage. But a Neighborhood Research and Media survey finds Rep. Good holding a similar 39-30% advantage. Therefore, the conflicting data suggests the race is undecided as we enter the final week of campaigning.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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