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Political Roundup – May 10, 2024

Updated: May 21


SENATE


Maryland:  Shock Poll Just Released  

A surprising May 6-8 poll from Emerson College shows Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the first time moving slightly ahead of US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac).


The results yield a 42-41% count despite Alsobrooks being outspent by an almost 10:1 ratio. This data clearly suggests that the upcoming May 14 Democratic primary election will yield an interesting night.


The general election data is surprising, too. After several earlier polls projected former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan (R) holding leads over his Democratic opponents, this survey posts both Alsobrooks and Trone to nine- (46-37%) and ten-point (48-38%) respective leads over the ex-state chief executive.


HOUSE


KY-4: AIPAC’s Early Attack Strategy  

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) announced that they are launching an ad blitz against Kentucky US Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), even though he has little competition in the May 21 Republican primary and has no Democratic opposition for November. The ads will attack him for his record pertaining to Israel support.


AIPAC’s goal is to weaken him within the Republican primary voter base in order to either dissuade him from running for the Senate when Mitch McConnell’s seat comes open in 2026, or make him less of a factor if he does launch a statewide candidacy.


MD-6: Dueling Polls  

A new publicly-released survey posts former Commerce Department official April McClain-Delaney (D) leading the large field of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), who is running for the Senate. The primary election is this Tuesday.


The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted the survey for the McClain-Delaney campaign. The May 6-7 poll finds McClain-Delaney topping state Delegate Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County) by a 37-24% margin. The pollsters indicate that the remaining 11 candidates combined only posted a cumulative 17% support factor.


There is a wide discrepancy in the polls, however. Recently, Vogel released an April 25-26 Public Policy Polling survey that showed both he and McClain-Delaney with 24% support factors. While the data results are very different, it is clear that the primary contest has winnowed to a two-way race.


NJ-10:  Special Scheduled; Candidates Come Forth  

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has called a special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) who passed away on April 24. The special primary will be held on July 16, with the special general on September 18. The winner will take the seat in late September and then be on the ballot for the regular term on November 5.


Because Rep. Payne passed away after the candidate filing deadline, the local Democratic Party organizations will choose a replacement nominee after the July 16 special primary for the regular term. It is presumed the delegates will choose the special primary winner, and Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D) appears to be the candidate consolidating the earliest support.


Also expressing interest in running for the party nomination are Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker, Linden Mayor Derek Armstead, East Orange City Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, and NJ state official David Godfrey. Republican Carmen Bucco and Green Party candidate Jon Serrano, along with Congressman Payne, were the only candidates to file at the March 25 filing deadline.


The Democrats will easily retain the Newark-anchored 10th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+58, and President Biden scored an 81-19% victory here in 2020.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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