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Political Roundup – May 23, 2024


MI-13: Hollier Disqualified

After the initial clerk staff reports revealed that former state senator and 2022 congressional candidate Adam Hollier (D) failed to submit the required number of valid petition signatures for the 2024 congressional election, the Wayne County Clerk verified that he was disqualified. 

According to the clerk’s report, Mr. Hollier filed only 863 valid registered voter signatures, well short of the needed 1,000. The disqualification is a break for freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), who defeated then-Sen. Hollier, 28-23%, in the 2022 Democratic primary. 

It appears that Mr. Hollier was the Congressman’s most serious challenger as the only remaining challengers are former state Rep. Mary Waters and resigned Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins. Hawkins recently agreed to a plea bargain that required her to admit to criminal misconduct in office, while Ms. Waters reported just over $5,000 cash-on-hand on her March 31st campaign disclosure report. As a result, Rep. Thanedar’s political position has greatly improved.


New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads in New GOP Primary Survey

The National Journal published a new survey of New Hampshire voters. It showed former US Senator Kelly Ayotte leading former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse by 50-28% in the Republican primary.

The survey, however, is comprised of an online panel from Survey Monkey, which is one of the least accurate sources in the polling industry. The sampling universe began with 1,196 NH adults, and then was reduced to 420 likely GOP primary voters.  Therefore, while Ms. Ayotte undoubtedly has a lead in the race, it may not be as strong as this poll suggests. 

Additionally, with a late September 10th primary election, this race has many weeks to fully develop. The eventual Republican nominee will face the winner of the Democratic primary between former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Council member Cinde Warmington. 

North Carolina: Robinson Rebounds

After several consecutive polls found Attorney General Josh Stein (D) beginning to pull away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) in the open 2024 Governor’s race, a series of new polls are again forecasting a seesaw political battle. 

From March 3 to April 8, Stein led in four consecutive polls from four different polling firms including the April Quinnipiac University survey that posted him to an eight-point lead. However, another four polls were conducted from April 8 to May 18, two of which showed Stein leading and two showed Robinson. Considering voting history in North Carolina, we can expect this race to bounce around from now until election day, likely culminating in a very close final result.

Vermont:  Another Key Democrat Won’t Run

On the heels of former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (D) announcing that he would not run again for his former position, ex-Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger (D) made a similar announcement early this week regarding the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.  

With the candidate filing deadline approaching (May 30), Democrats have yet to recruit a strong opponent to challenge four-term Gov. Phil Scott (R) who is seeking re-election to a fifth term. Despite Vermont’s heavily Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott is well-positioned to defy the odds and win yet another re-election.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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