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Political Roundup – May 9, 2024

Updated: May 17


House


CA-27: Rep. Garcia Trails in Early Poll  

Impact Research, polling for the George Whitesides campaign, released the results of their mid-April poll that finds their client leading three-term California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 47-44% count.


In the jungle primary, however, Garcia topped Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff and ex-CEO for Virgin Atlantic Airlines, 55-33%, from a turnout of 135,161 primary voters.


This will clearly be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Garcia represents one of four California Republican-held districts that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as a Democratic seat. In this instance, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission made the northern Los Angeles County district even more Democratic, stretching the seat to a D+8 rating. President Biden carried this district configuration with a 55-43% victory margin, so Garcia has his work cut out for him to win here again in November.


Louisiana: Judges Order New Cong Map by June 3  

The three-judge federal panel that invalidated the new Louisiana congressional map is now sending the plan back to the state legislature with a deadline of June 3 for redrawing. This time, there is no judicial requirement to specifically add a new majority-minority district.


In response, Secretary of State Nancy Landry (R) is filing an appeal of the original ruling with the US Supreme Court. She has criticized the panel for not adhering to her May 15 deadline for producing a 2024 map, saying the state needs such a time frame to adequately administer the election.


While the Louisiana redistricting situation will soon come to a head, it is difficult to see exactly how the map's final version will develop.


VA-5: Rep. Good Well Behind in New Primary Poll

A just-released April 30-May 2 Battleground Connect poll finds two-term Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) falling well behind his Republican primary challenger, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot).


According to the survey data, McGuire would lead Good by a double-digit margin, 45-31%, as the two battle for position in anticipation of the June 18 Old Dominion primary.


The McGuire effort, which has been principally hitting Good over his lack of support for former President Donald Trump, is being supplemented by heavy outside spending, much of which is coming from organizations affiliated with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who Good was instrumental in deposing. Additionally, this is the first time Good has faced a primary election. Previously, he was nominated through a district convention, which is the way he denied former Rep. Denver Riggleman renomination in 2020.


Senate


West Virginia:  Justice Crushing Mooney in Latest GOP Poll  

With a week to go before the May 14 West Virginia primary, Research America conducted another GOP US Senate survey and publicly released the results. The data finds Gov. Jim Justice leading US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) by a huge 67-23% tally. Justice is expected to win the Republican nomination next week and the Senate seat in November.


Governor


West Virginia: Polling Tight as Primary Nears  

As the West Virginia open gubernatorial candidates head into the last week of campaigning before the primary election next Tuesday, a May 2-5 Emerson College survey continues to see Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the GOP primary race, but his edge is narrowing as the whole field is becoming bunched.


The Emerson results reveal a 33-29-21-15% split among Morrisey, former state Delegate Moore Capito, businessman Chris Miller, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively.


Next's week primary winner will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed Gov. Jim Justice (R) who will likely be nominated for the US Senate in the same election. The erratic polling in the past few weeks in this race suggests we could be headed for a very close final result on election night.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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