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PRESIDENT
FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics: Dueling Maps
Two data organizations released national maps based upon their polling averages, and both presidential candidates would clinch the election on one respective map.
The FiveThirtyEight data would give Vice President Kamala Harris a 276-262 win. The Real Clear map gives former President Trump a more substantial victory at 312-226.
The differences: FiveThirtyEight gives Harris victories in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but the victory margin is less than one percentage point in each place. Real Clear places each of the aforementioned states with Trump. Perhaps the most interesting commonality between the two maps is that both FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear see Trump winning Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
SENATE
Nebraska: Name Confusion
The most surprising Senate race is the Nebraska campaign between Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and Independent Dan Osborn. Two new developments have occurred. First, retired University of Nebraska championship head football coach and former US Congressman Tom Osborne cut a new ad for Sen. Fischer in which he explains that confusion exists because he and the Senate candidate share the same surname. He goes onto explain that he has never met Dan Osborn, but does know Sen. Fischer. Coach Osborne, who is revered in the state, then reiterates how important it is to re-elect Sen. Fischer.
We have also seen conflicting polls within the last week, with both candidates releasing internal surveys placing them six points ahead. Yesterday, Sen. Fischer's campaign published another new poll to counter Osborn's last release. The data is again from her campaign pollster, Torchlight Strategies, and this time places Sen. Fischer seven points ahead at 51-44%.
HOUSE
AZ-2: Rep. Crane (R) in Shocking Tied Poll
Arizona pollster Noble Predictive Insights released a new survey that, surprisingly, depicts freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) as locked in a dead heat with former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-2 as R+15. Representative Crane, even as a freshman, was one of the House leaders to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), thus becoming labeled as one of the Freedom Caucus activists.
This under-the-radar race could quickly become a campaign of note. According to the new Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report for the period ending Sept. 30, both Rep. Crane and Mr. Nez have more than $1 million cash-on-hand, with the incumbent having about $400,000 more than the challenger. Assuming this poll is accurate, Rep. Crane will have to increase his turnout operation in order to stave off this upset attempt.
WI-3: Rep. Van Orden (R) in Dead Heat
In a race that has been teetering since the August primary, a new Normington Petts survey for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee projects Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke with a one-point lead over freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien), 49-48%; notably, she leads 51-43% within the all-important Independent voter segment.
Representative Van Orden defeated then-state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D) in the last election, but with a slightly disappointing margin of 52-48%; the national Democratic establishment didn't target the race and then-President Trump carried the seat in both 2016 and 2020. Prior to Mr. Van Orden's win, former Rep. Ron Kind had occupied the seat in the Democratic column for 26 years. This is now becoming a significant district to watch on election night.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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